To: Greg Jung who wrote (23974 ) 11/4/1998 10:46:00 PM From: Barkat Respond to of 45548
Greg wrote>>I can't find references to an ATT/TCI contract in the yahoo news. When was it issued? Around networld/interop time? And what device type does it cover? A reference to SI posting may be enough to start me up on this.<<< Summary and Investment Conclusion On a conference call yesterday, 3Com announced the immediate availability of its two way cable broadband access solutions. These include a headend based on the successful Total Control Hub platform as well as client side modem designed for use in small offices and homes. Previously, 3Com had been shipping pre-standard, telco return, cable access equipment. This will be 3Com's first deployment of MCNS compliant products. 3Com claims to be the only vendor with both an MCNS client and headend product today. We understand 3Com's cable modems have yet to be certified by Cable Labs for deployment in the retail distribution channel. We understand that certification is not a precursor to deploying MCNS compliant cable modem termination systems within TCI's network. We believe it is possible that 3Com could deploy systems in over 12 TCI headends by year end, assuming certification is completed in a timely manner. Price points for the cable modems were consistent with proprietary modem prices but we expect sharp price declines as volumebuilds in early 1999. As detailed on the conference call, TCI has selected 3Com as one of two suppliers of DOCSIS headend equipment and one of three suppliers of DOCSIS cable modems for its Internet access service based on the @home service. TCI plans to use a retail distribution model in order to deploy modems directly to consumers through electronics outlets such as Circuit City, Office Depot and others, instead of the traditional leasing plans that are used for cable equipment such as set top boxes. This should play to the strength of 3Com's large and proven distribution channel, however only one trial is currently underway. The trial is clearly in the early stages as our checks with retailers yesterday suggested they were unaware of a major cable modem roll out. We think the retail model will develop gradually throughout 1999. We believe that retail distribution of cable modems will be a challenge in the near term as there are several impediments to overcome among both consumers and retailers. Buying equipment for the cable network (vs. renting) represents a change in behavior for consumers and this may require significant education regarding the benefits of cable modems in order to change behavior. In talking to retailers such as CompUSA, Circuit City etc., we believe that there is also a lack of knowledge in the retail channel about the benefits of broadband access. Despite these obstacles, we believe that broadband access remains a significant long term opportunity for 3Com and other equipment suppliers, but the near term financial impact remains limited. Other customers currently using 3Com's broadband cable solutions include FiberTel in Argentina, Northern Cable in Canada and other operators in the US, Europe and Asia. N.B.: CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION may have, within the last three years, served as a manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for or makes a primary market in issues of any or all of the companies mentioned. Closing prices are as of October 26, 1998.AtHome (ATHM,$44.6,Not Rated) Circuit City (CC,$36,Not Rated)Comp USAl (CPU,$15,Buy)* TCI (TCOMA,$43.9,Restricted)* This memorandum is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have long or short positions in any buy and sell securities referred to herein. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Copyright 1998, CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION = = 3Com Corproation= =COMS:Strong Buy