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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JSB who wrote (31444)	11/4/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

stkpker1; ...how far out ? ...that's the $64 question. I would think that a negative API report 2-3 weeks after the Street just pumped tons of Ca$h into the sector running it up significantly; directly into the face of negative fundamentals; would NOT cause an immediate selloff of any major degree. The Street knew what the fundamentals were now & near term; they made the bet on the positive future expectations in the mid-longterm imho. If the Street does selloff here; - talk about ''fickle'' and flightly money... I think many mutual funds made big longterm moves here; they won't be jumping in & out on API reports of this nature imho. But, if OPEC screws up - someone breaks ranks and just dumps on the market, if Venezeula just turns on the faucets full throttle - then I would expect the Street to react swiftly - selling. But, I just think that they see the worst is over, don't view this sector as ''dead-money'' for any great period of time; are comfortable living with some up & down API #'s and crude prices nearterm; and are basing their investment on the still oversold/undervalued nature and the tremendous longterm potential upside return - which still vastly outpaces that of the total market. Stocks like RIG RON FGII WFT still have very, very realistic 50% moves from here ! - Managers can vastly outperform the market here, if they are ''here'' when moves like we just stared, take place... What other sector is this oversold and has a realistic opportunity to move 50% ? (shhhh - S&L's/Reg. Banks ) not many...every month and quarter that goes by with Crude Oil still under $15 makes the historic "Bet" that much more attractive. Asia WILL rise again; Cold Winter & Blizzards WILL return, and demand WILL return to equilibrium & normal historic levels - allowing Crude to return to normal price levels; and when it does - this will be THE place to be. If you want those remaining 50%+ returns (many doubles) ; you have to buy in sometime when others are selling. You have to buy in sometime when the fundamentals are negative. You have to buy in sometime when these stocks are still cheap; and guess what --- When fundamentals are strong, when everyone is buying, when Crude is $18 - you will have missed the boat. Cheap stockprices in the Oilpatch and positive fundamentals & momenteum do NOT go hand in hand. Can't have it both ways...they don't exist simultaneously - gotta buy in against the grain sometime, if you want the Big Profits... isn't it really that simple ? Buying on a retracement here, may just be one of - if not the last; major buying opportunity. People are micro-managing the ultimate entry points here. We have condensed all most a normal years worth of info into 2 months here; we've see a double bottom, total market capitulation and panic, International turmoil - so if one can't see where the bottom is - one is perhaps blind. Also, we've seen the demand here and the rapidity in which it can move and in which we can profit handsomely. So just how ''imprudent'' is it to buy on a dip here ? The next run; if it breaks on positive OPEC news, API #'s, a Crude Oil increase etc. - could carry us another 20-30-50%; then - stockpicking and market timing and value investing will be quite challenging... if not now, on a retracement - then when ? PS; I wouldn't be waiting for that return of the 1929 Crash anytime soon... & don't plan on seeing any $22 RON, $9 FGII either... final thought; Cramer (CNBC) has just spoken of taking advantage of those big 1 day blow off - buying opportunities - (in this market enviroment) just do it.