Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Pharmos (PARS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ariella who wrote (72)	11/4/1998 9:04:00 AM
From: yosi s	Respond to of 1386

Ariella you hit THE QUESTION " How come Wall Street doesn't see what I see?" And I am still searching for that answer. And I am sure David is too, And his post should be seen with that in view. Yosi.

To: Ariella who wrote (72)	11/4/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Richard Huth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1386

Dear Ariella Concerning your question <<How come Wall Street doesn't see what I see?>> In a way it depends how you look at it. << if PARS sells the 3 million common shares registered in September for $2/each, we get a little bit of dilution in return for another 14 months of living expenses to tack onto the 10-months we've already got>>. At the moment PARS would not be able to sell at $2, perhaps at $1,75, taking away 3,5 month of the time frame. <<maybe an $8 mill-$10 mill upfront payment from an HU-211 >>. You just said it: "maybe". Discussing a new partnership is a tricky thing, and it could well need more time than just 6 month. So I would not bet on the money to come. And how much we will see on upfront payments, only God knows. This amount and time frame is not determined, but only a good assumption mixed with a small fraction of wishful thinking - we all would like to see you being right on this subject - me, too !!! Furtherhand any delay in getting the partnering signed would lead to a delay in getting HU211 to market. No revenue = nothing to discount. This is still a big risk for any investor (and looking at the time it needs to find a co-marketing partner for Alrex/Lotemax shows that a delay in signing the partnering for HU211 is not that unlikely). <<the $2.6 million due in milestone payments from BOL>>. Since there is no FDA approval, there are no §2,6 million. And we all assume that this will come at mid-'99, but we do not know for sure. And sometimes the FDA is very good in delaying things. And this would be far behind control for PARS management. Nobody could blame them for any delays caused by the FDA, but we would not see the milestones yet. <<of course, have not factored in the reality of sales of Alrex/Lotemax>>. Here you are right. But nobody of us has any idea when we are going to see the first sales in Europe (and in which countries first). Second Mgt. has warned investors, that the sales in Q4 could again be week. This would mean increasing revenue not before Q1-1999. <<cash burn rate that used to be $715K a month, fell to $513K a month and is now $428K a month>>. Nobody can promise that the cash burn rate will stay at these low levels for the next six month. And at this level, there is not much left to save additionally. So if you tend to be more careful, it is better to calculate on a cash burn rate of §500K than $400K. Ariella e.a.. please do not misunderstand me. I am not saying that you are wrong in your assumption. I only tried to answer your, and our all question. If one tend to look more carefully and risk averse at the above mentioned subjects, not everything looks as bright as we see it. And we should not forget, it would not be the first time that a promising product was shot down in PhIII. I know that some are thinking that I am talking BS when saying something that is not that optimistic. But it is what I get to hear by European investors. Ariella, the facts you are presenting are correct. And we both agree in saying that PARS is a very attractive investment. But telling nothing new, in investing not only facts count, but the sentiment or feeling (as you said: ..move before the herd does :-) ). As said before, I only tried to find some reasons why Wall Street might see things different than most of us do. Best regards to all, Richard