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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (787)	11/4/1998 10:40:00 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

When Russia defaults, short lenders (Europe and US), not borrowers (Russia). We are past the stage for shorting the borrowers.

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (787)	11/4/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

Paul, even if the ruble is a little over 2 times what it used to be, you have to ask yourself if it has already been factored in with the Russian stock market dropping 94% from its peak. In other words the ruble weakened by 2 times and the stock market fell to a point where it would have to go up 16 times to get back where it was at. And a weaker ruble helps the oil and gas companies in Russia. Stock markets are supposed to factor in news. At this point the negative news has already been overly discounted. It is mind boggling how low Russian stocks are. The probability of nationalization is almost zero, yet that is the only thing that can justify a $10-15 billion market cap for a country whose GDP is $450 million Russia was up again today. The RTS index was up 3.3% and is now over 60. To get back to its high it would have to go up by almost a factor of 10. We have a long way to go. Emerging markets are beginning to get back on people's radar screens too. Since most of the money has been taken out of emerging markets and the rest of the world seems to be fairly valued or overvalued, can you imagine what will happen when money flows back consistently to emerging markets ?? We are talking HUGE rally here. IMHO, don't go short, we are in the beginning stages of a bull market in Russia.