Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (31458)	11/4/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 95453

"Scientific innovation surprises us. One of its surprises is that oil supplies have been gushing forth at the same time that oil prices have been going down." forbes.com Tom

To: RGinPG who wrote (31458)	11/4/1998 12:14:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Lets check those shorts.....RGinPG . ...just how low do you think they will go ? Hey; there is no ''sure-thing'' in calling this right here & now. I just think that with each passing month we get closer and closer to the very high probability of normalized crude oil prices. Winters actual demand increases and the very real ''psychological'' factor - can't be ignored either... With another Fed Cut more likely than not; especially in light of coordinated International cuts; and the flow of cash into the market - I don't see it ending here... We've made it through bad earnings & downgrades, we've made it through bad API numbers; Clinton looks more likely to NOT get removed from office - what catalysts are there for anything other than a minor breather/retracement here ? Some are calling for new lows and a total market crash - this is NOT very likely and imho; borders on being out of touch with reality here... however - a 15-25% retracement - still leaves us with a 15-25% gain since late August - with the OSX up about 40% since then. I could see 10-15% with the high flyers taken down further... but I am riding the train untill I hear the bakes screeching, or that whistle blowing... As far as shorting; why the Oilpatch ? Risk vs. reward-wise - certainly much, much better candidates in the overall marketplace imho ? I don't understand shorting near bottoms and buying in on momenteum near tops ? There are plays on the Dollar/Yen, High value/PE plays; the Internet-Tech valuation/earnings ''insanity'' etc... The breadth of this rally and coming Fed Cut again is ominous for shorts - I'd at least wait untill after the Fed Cuts - and then - perhaps short into the Rally for the overvalued stocks; on second thought - I wouldn't even do that...<VBG>. Is the actual conservative play - to be about 1/3 - 1/2 invested here (instead of shorting) at this level and the rest in cash; either average down on a selloff or buy on the way up with the momenteum when fundamentals return... - but, then again; when fundamentals return; no such thing as cheap Oilpatch stocks ! good luck

To: RGinPG who wrote (31458)	11/4/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Ron, I have to hand it to you. Shorts everywhere got absolutely crushed today, except in this sector.

To: RGinPG who wrote (31458)	11/5/1998 10:54:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

RGinPG....it's getting interesting now - opportunities both ways.. This is where it gets interesting; I did sell to protect some small gains today on SGO APC KEG; see these going lower here; protecting small gains. In my trading portfolio - I do not hold ANY frontrunners (RIG RON WFT) just the ''dogs of the patch'' laggards like PKD OMNI TCMS HLX RRC WG - an odd mishmash of stocks that haven't generally reached their prior Sept highs and haven't bounced here as yet. I think their downside is limited. But - the ''Sell on a moments notice'' may have just arrived for those that made their move; I still do not see an adequate enough downside; for the risk vs. reward returns to be worth shorting here... maybe a 1 week play here - but for 10% +/- ? The big question is what do people holding high flyers like CDIS DRQ CXIPY or the biggies like RIG RON do ? I sold these early (a little to early) but maybe not....as I just may get to buy them cheaper here... Going to cash and waiting seems to be the smart play here. I'll protect profits from the run-up,; and hope for CDIS $16 , VTS $16, FGII $15, SCSWF $10, CXIPY $38...maybe RIG $29-30, RON $29-30 and VRC & GLBL on ANY dips from here - both very cheap !...With the worst news (most importantly - a total market blowoff - being over) , earnings, downgrades out on these - I'll take longterm buys at those prices; still don't like the Jack-up oriented drillers - but they just may offer the best upside % on a crude move - the only drillers for me right now are PKD for its harsh enviroment & International Exposure , here very cheap at it's bottom & off the acquisition ; and RIG; I like service (deepwater & hi-tech) better than the drillers here. Could be another very good buying opportunity if we get a selloff here prior to a possible Fed Cut & OPEC meeting - this presents a real trading opportunity here.... Depends if one expects a Fed cut and good OPEC news, or rather a favorable market reaction to the OPEC meeting news... Maybe good OPEC news will lead to crude short covering and a little positive momenteum ? Personally; I see no way possible of going back to prior or new lows - ZERO; I will set targets that I can live with; to make some longterm buys on Companies like CDIS PGO VTS CXIPY SCSWF and biggies like RIG RON WFT on any decent dips here... we are going to see some profits taken here; but I see it as a buying opportunity ''developing'' - another 10-15% from here and I'm ''in'' on the aformentioned companies... like CDIS on this selloff off of great earnings report....C'Mon $15-16 CDIS ! Hopefully this will just ''drift'' down slowly over a couple of weeks; I'd love to buy a dip here; right before the Fed & OPEC meetings....I'll take THAT bet on a 10-15%+ retracement from here ! This just may be the last final; substantial dip on which to buy.... I'd look for a basing mode and then a nice leg up through this spring....hopefully La Nina rears her ugly head...<VBG>.