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To: scotty who wrote (22572)	11/4/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Giraffe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116758

Tuesday's post from Precise Buy Signals: Technical indicators are screaming "Over-bought!" in paper assets and "Over-sold!" in hard assets. Joining the chorus in perfect timing with confirmation is financial news which often pinpoints turns in markets with exactly wrong projections of popular press, promoting continuation of up-trends in stocks and down-trends in hard assets at trend extremes and reversal points. Today they are bashing gold (again), noting it to be within multi-years lows and "nearing breakdown". Gold stocks are holding XAU 73-76 and displaying remarkable resilience as December gold struggles with $290. It is probable that gold was drawn lower today on news of increased Russian exports of silver, pulling silver below $5 where Indian buyers provide support. Financial news says that because gold has not reacted to the favorable developments of falling interest rates (making owning and storing gold more profitable), reflation probability and the weakening dollar, it probably won't. These conditions are developments in process which are INCREASING the probability of renewed interest in gold. Striking a demarcation point in this process and proclaiming victory of paper assets over hard assets is popular journalism at its finest. As a practical matter, we want to see a turn up from here and confirmation of that turn before acting on gold. Gold stocks' 8.3% gain of 10/27 still leaves short-term technical indicators a bit over-cooked.

To: scotty who wrote (22572)	11/4/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116758

Scotty, IMHO Suspect that it may well be more related to change in leadership of Senate Banking Committee to Phil Grahm. He is noted to be anti-banking, which could bode well for the quicker movement out of the unsupported short gold positions for L.T.C.M. He also has (somewhat) of a history of being rather pro natural resource businesses. But whatever the reason, I like it! rh

To: scotty who wrote (22572)	11/4/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116758

'Michael Evans, Professor of Economics at Northwestern University and the director of the Evans Group research firm, said the economic picture painted by the Beige Book gave Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan all latitude to ease again at the November 17 FOMC meeting. ''The Fed was prepared to cut the funds rate by 25 basis points anyway and this report simply confirms that. The Fed will continue to cut rates until next spring and push the funds rate all the way down to 4.0 percent,'' Evans predicted. ''Greenspan perceives the economy is weak and that he waited too long with his tight monetary policy. He's going to overreact in the other direction,'' added Evans, who does not think the U.S. economy is as vulnerable as Greenspan fears. ' (Note: this article is ''in progress''; there will likely be an update soon.) biz.yahoo.com