To: bucky89 who wrote (56728 ) 11/4/1998 2:19:00 PM From: Immi Respond to of 61433
Investors love Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO - news) because the nation's leading networker consistently produces earnings that meet expectations as it chalks up quarter after quarter of strong growth. For the October quarter, Wall Street expects Cisco to earn 33 cents per share, compared with 26 cents a year earlier, as tabulated by a First Call survey of analysts' estimates. "I think it's a foregone conclusion, especially looking at the stock, that they're going to make the number," says assistant portfolio manager Jeff Parker with Eagle Asset Management, a longtime buyer of the stock. Cisco stock fell 34% in 10 days in late September and early October on fears that corporate spending on technology was slowing. Although the shares are up 45% since then, mutual fund managers are looking at Cisco with fresh caution. Especially if they feel that the stock is getting ahead of itself. After all, trading at 71 times earnings, Cisco's stock price is back in the stratosphere. But Cisco is likely to find that growing revenue at its accustomed clip of 30%-plus won't be easy. Cisco's wide circle of corporate customers seems unlikely to buy switches in the volume of the old days, given macroeconomic uncertainties and the trend of outsourcing network tasks to telecom carriers. Cisco is planning to sell large data switches to telecom carriers, helping them build Internet-based systems able to carry cheap phone calls. Cisco is throwing considerable engineering muscle into the effort, and carriers are interested. But this daring attack runs Cisco smack into Lucent (NYSE:LU - news) , an entrenched supplier spun off from AT&T (NYSE:T - news) two years ago. The Cisco Earnings Checklist What should investors look for? Is Cisco making progress in building Sprint's (NYSE:FON - news) new ION voice-data network? This is a showcase test for the networker, because it beat out Lucent for the job. This spring Sprint started testing Cisco MGX 8800 switches to run voice messages over asynchronous transfer mode, or ATM, systems. Analysts will watch closely to see if Cisco has any problems shipping these high-speed switches. Is Ascend (Nasdaq:ASND - news) still thwarting Cisco in the ATM and related frame-relay businesses? In its September quarter, Ascend's sales of these switches dipped from the prior quarter. Ascend blamed it on a delay in shipping software to one large Japanese company, but even excluding results from Japan, the company's growth was a bit slower than some expectations. Analysts will look for clues to how Cisco is faring in this market. Has Cisco stepped up its loans to customers, especially young carriers, to win their business? Ascend startled Wall Street last month by writing off an $8.7 million working capital loan made to five small privately held carriers. Ascend Chief Financial Officer Michael Ashby says the company was forced to make this offer for the first time in the third quarter because that is what Cisco and Lucent are doing. Ascend's stock took a hit because investors were surprised that it bankrolled customers to win business. Cisco is not above similar tactics. In September the small carrier CTC Communications (Nasdaq:CPTL - news) agreed to buy $25 million of Cisco product over three years. Cisco gave CTC a $25 million financing deal for the same time period.