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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Haynes who wrote (4684)	11/5/1998 1:05:00 AM
From: FMK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Peter- The wisdom I was referring to was the ecomomist's solution. He had appropriately concluded that they should start selling these batteries! During the last conference call Lev said that they have been working on this for almost nine years. He also said they were, intitally, producing laptop batteries on the Klockner line at the rate of five per minute. I remember noting the design rate of 10 per minute. I find it reasonable that they have since achieved somewhere between 5 and 10. Let's say 7.5 per minute, which would correspond to over 3000 batteries per shift. Two weeks ago I spoke with an analyst invited to Ireland by Jordan Goldstein for FRB. He was told he could see automated production from start to finish. It might seem difficult to adjust to after waiting for so long, but after 525,000 shares bought weeks ago by insiders as votes of confidence and conspicuous additions of production personnel, you may have to face the eventuality that we are going to be rewarded. I hope you don't sell for a small profit after waiting so long.

To: Peter Haynes who wrote (4684)	11/5/1998 1:28:00 AM
From: kolo55	Respond to of 27311

OEMs have had samples since June (maybe late May). In earlier conference calls, the company has indicated that they sent OEMs samples from Henderson in June. Apparently there has been a significant demand for samples. If things went according to the August call, production samples from Northern Ireland have been distributed in small quantities in August, and in increasing volumes in September and October. Since the OEMs got battery samples produced on essentially identical equipment in Henderson in June, they have had plenty of time to conduct the tests that require long periods of time, like a 500 charge/discharge cycle test. Larger volumes of batteries may have been required for statistical QC type tests of other test parameters, but these quantities should have been available in September. It appears that they should have had plenty of time to run many of these tests as well. I believe that we now are in the design phase of OEM products. Valence has to wait to 'catch' an OEM in one of the design cycles for one of their products. In the August call, the company said that notebook computer OEM design work had not begun yet, but OEMs had begun 'scoping out' products based on the Valence batteries. Dawson did say that cellphone manufacturers were apparently designing dual capabilities into their designs. From this, we can conclude that the earliest notebook computer OEMs began designing specific products was probably in September. I don't know the design cycle time for notebook computers, but my guess is 12-16 weeks. Somewhere early in the process, a decision will be made to use Valence batteries, with some sort of contractual agreement shortly afterward to assure supply, and allow Valence time to ramp production volumes. The question remains "When will the contractual agreement be announced?" and the answer of course is "When the customer wants it revealed." It could happen anytime, but my guess is that its more likely toward the end of the design cycle and near the beginning of the new model (notebook computer) production. From my guess that OEMs began serious designs in September, and guessing 12-16 weeks cycle, that means that its unlikely that we will hear a contract announcement in November, but highly likely we will hear a contract in December/January. But as the contractual agreement is concluded, we should see evidence that Valence is accelerating their efforts to produce at the volumes desired under the agreement. And we have seen significant signs of that, including increasing production manpower, moving more production equipment to NI, apparent orders for even more production equipment, sending equipment to the Hanil/Valence JV etc. If the rumors on this thread are correct, and the company has been pushing to get significantly more capacity in place, then it implies that the contractual volumes could be huge. In summary, Valence could be very close to announcing a contract. I tend to believe that this month is too soon, and expect that we will most likely hear a contract in December. But I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised if we see an OEM show a product containing a Valence battery at Comdex (in Las Vegas, near the HQ of Valence). However, I really don't expect it. The next couple of weeks could be interesting. Paul

To: Peter Haynes who wrote (4684)	11/5/1998 5:53:00 AM
From: Robert Einstein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

I agree. I think the guy is wacko. I don't know what his problem is. May be he is some rich kid with nothing else to do. Looks like every board has extremists. This board has its share. FMK and Dark brown. Sheeeeeeeesh. Robert

To: Peter Haynes who wrote (4684)	11/5/1998 8:44:00 AM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Folks: The only information to rely upon is the corporate sanctioned "stuff." All else, however well meaning, can only be filed under the "hyperbole, rumor, innuendo, or smoke and mirrors" category. As for the potential for a pre-c.c. run-up.....well.....been there, done that several times, with the results being total and complete retrenchment within 24 hours after the call. So me thinks once bitten is twice shy. The huge volume experience last week indicates the level of interest lurking on the sidelines awaiting a firm corporate pronouncement. But it's entirely probable that lurker base has seen the results of past c.c.'s and will be loathe to repeat, yet again, a pattern. Bottom line? I see VLNC staying right around where it now is until after that call. Of course, I could be wrong, guess we'll see, eh??? John~