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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (18898)	11/5/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: jach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Time to sell CSCO? Near term csco may go a little higher. IMO, csco is way too high now. Target price based on 35% growth is 1.50$x35 = 52.5$. If csco comes down to about about 50$, it's a buy. Now, it is the time to sell this stock.

To: jach who wrote (18898)	11/5/1998 1:02:00 AM
From: Ken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

yeah, right? You happen to profess to know when to buy and sell this stock. Like I bet you knew to buy it when it was trading 30% lower at the beginning of the month?? My advice to those long Cisco is to keep it in your portfolios as a core holding with an overweight position. Hold for the long term and you will be amply rewarded. If you sell and want to buy back, you will probably drive yourself nuts trying to figure out when to buy it back. This stock moves so fast that by the time you decided to buy, you would have missed the buying opportunity. Buy and hold and keep the position balanced with respect to a solidly diversified portfolio. I didn't sell one of my tech holdings in the tech bear market and have gained everything back in a matter of 2 weeks with nearly 100% gains so I know my advice is sound.

To: jach who wrote (18898)	11/5/1998 6:51:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

I would be careful with your advice. Premium companies trade at premium multiples. Example: Microsoft I have ALWAYS thought that Microsoft was too expensive, relative to its P/E. But anyone, I mean ANYONE who bought and held Microsoft 6 months ago or before, has made money. Anyone who bout Microsoft at this time 4 years ago, paid around $15 a share for the stock. It now trades at $105. (I bought Microsoft back then, and sold it a few months later at break-even because I was impatient with it. I never bought it back, because it always looked too expensive.) The lesson I learned: When you know a company is good, that it has a great future, you buy and hold. Cisco is like Microsoft, except possibly with a better future in terms of growth. It may appear a bit expensive now, but hold it for a few years, and you won't regret it. Look at it this way: Are you confident Cisco will grow by at least 30 percent for the next five years? If so, let's take your numbers, starting with a fair market value (FMV) of $52 a share. 1 year from now: FMV = $67.60 2 years from now: FMV = $87.88 3 years from now: FMW = $114.24 4 years from now: FMV = $148.51 5 years from now: FMV = $193.07 If Cisco grows at 40 percent per year, FMV could go to $280 a share. And if Cisco grows at only 20 percent per year, FMV would still be $129. With these kind of odds, I'd be foolish NOT to own Cisco. I've got an EASY double, and if things go pretty well, I've got a quadruple. Of course, if you think you are smart enough to time the market, go for it. (I learned a long time ago that I am NOT smart enough to time the market, so I just try to buy quality growth companies.)