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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (17015)11/5/1998 8:07:00 AM
From: Enigma  Respond to of 18056
 
George you may well be right - but I wonder how much steam there is right now? E



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (17015)11/5/1998 8:14:00 AM
From: John Hunt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18056
 
The Changing of the Guard - Professor von Braun of The Rocket School of Economics

fiendbear.com

<< We live in a world of cycles, of changing circumstances, of day turning to night and of beginnings and endings. Just why that is so nobody really seems to know. Yet we all know that “things” change. Constantly. >>

Hi George,

February? ... Beware the Ides of November.

How's that for going out on a limb with my saw?

< g >

John






To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (17015)11/5/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18056
 
The weakness in bonds and strength in gold tells me this will be the shortest bull in history. Should be over by February. But Dow probably will make a new all time before then. Could even hit that magic 10,000 number.

My take is that this bull will not last long once gold breaks decisively above $300 and/or bond yields breach 5.5%. That will signal little room for additional Fed easing.

When we reach that point it is lose lose for stocks. If the Fed eases further, bond yields soar, gold soars, and the dollar plunges. But if they tighten money markets become more attractive relative to stocks.

My scenario is Dow 9300-10,000 by January. Dow 7500 or lower by April/May