Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1144)	11/5/1998 4:40:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 34857

gdi and Dave - yeah, it will be interesting to suddenly have another horserace. With live horses. I'm sure this will be tied to the 3G debate pretty soon. A fine mess. Two more problems with MQ alliance - here's the first from Total Telecom: "The growth of GSM in the past three years has surpassed all expectations.The subscriber base now stands at the 100 million mark, and shows no sign of slowing. In 1995, GSM's worldwide footprint and subscriber base was a lot smaller than it is today. Back then, 113 networks supported just 12.5 million users - and this was regarded as a remarkable achievement as it came just three years after the inauguration of the world's first commercial GSM network by Finland's Radiolinja.At Telecom 95 in Geneva, Mike Short, then chairperson of the GSM MoU association, was asked to predict the number of GSM subscribers by 2000. His reply of "100 million", considered by many to be overly-optimistic, turned out to be an under-estimate. Figures released by the MoU Association, from data supplied by the EMC World Cellular Database, show that the 100 million subscriber landmark was passed at the end of July - 18 months ahead of expectations. CI tracked "GSM's growth rate has been governed by three major factors," says Short, "these are globalisation, China, and prepaid services." GSM has become a global technology much quicker than was originally anticipated. There are now 284 networks in 120 countries (an increase of 151% in three years). This has resulted in increased competition, and most countries support multiple competing GSM networks. China is the largest GSM market, having recently overtaken Italy. At the last count, there were 12 million GSM subscribers in China and this figure is expected to rise to 23 million by 2000. ********** Since neither Qualcomm nor Microsoft has any experience with GSM, which is dominating Europe and Asia, how will the IT companies react to new mobile software which is not optimized to dovetail with the existing global standard? Conversely, Symbian consortium covers both GSM and CDMA manufacturers. You'd think covering all bets would be a priority for PC makers with substantial sales in Europe and Asia. Number two - in trade rags WinCE has been declared DOA. Bulky, clumsy intractable slab of software not intended for wireless applications. Yet some newsreports now claim that at least some of the MQ products will be built on WinCE. I don't know the specifics but it is widely believed that WinCE can't be turned into a nimble mobile telecom platform - too much baggage from the ancient computer OS. Say what you will about Oracle - it's a win for Symbian. I'm not going to spit on Sun, either. The last time I looked Solaris was hot. Maurice - that's the fastest (though a bit clumsy) turnaround I've seen in a while. Two days ago you would have described Bill as evil incarnate, without real talent for competing outside the shelter of a monopoly... now he's your pal. One thing you have to admit... Qualcomm and Microsoft were forced into a corner. They were the only companies opposing Symbian so they had to get together. Their hand was forced by Symbian; they were reacting instead of taking the initiative. As a result Symbian will be first to the market. First applications from several manufacturers will arrive in -99. Both Microsoft and Qualcomm are notorious about promising products that they will not deliver on time. Will the IT companies listen to their promises knowing their product delay record? Or will they go with the product that is on the market? Tero