again:
To: +gregor (31396 )
From: +Fred C. Ensminger
Tuesday, Nov 3 1998 2:46AM ET
Reply # of 31542
ain't never going to happen. here is why:
From: alert@stratfor.com
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 19:13:10 -0600 (CST)
To: alert@stratfor.com
Subject: Middle East
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Try the Asia Intelligence Update
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Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
November 3, 1998
Mid-East States Prepare Regional Response to Iraq
Though basically a formality, on November 2, the Iraqi Parliament
announced its approval of Saddam Hussein's decision not to allow
the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) to continue its inspections of
Iraqi weapons sites. The Parliament also called on other Arab
nations to support the Iraqi position in denouncing UNSCOM's
weapons inspections. While they may not be ready to heed Iraq's
call, a flurry of diplomatic activity between several Middle
Eastern nations suggests that they are finally preparing a
regional answer to the long-running Iraqi crisis.
The U.S. responded to the recent crisis exactly as it has in the
past, condemning Iraq, insisting that nothing short of full
compliance is acceptable, conferring with allies, and hinting
strongly at the possibility of using unilateral military force
against Iraq. Baghdad, in turn, announced that it did not fear
U.S. threats, since the U.S. has been threatening Iraq for eight
years. But Iraq's neighbors, seeing this latest and now almost
formulaic crisis brewing, have apparently already begun to write
a new script. On October 22, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-
Sharaa delivered a message to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
from Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, the contents of which were
not disclosed. On November 1, Assad himself flew to Egypt to
discuss security concerns, including Syrian-Turkish tension and
the Wye River accord. Syria also discussed the situation in the
Middle East and expanding bilateral cooperation with Iran on
October 24, when Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi traveled
to Syria.
This week, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan ibn Abdel Aziz
began a three-day visit to Egypt. The Prince will meet with
Mubarak to discuss regional issues and military cooperation
during his stay. Later this week, Kharrazi is scheduled deliver a
message from Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to Saudi Arabia.
Kharrazi will reportedly discuss bilateral relations and
cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as regional
problems, during his two-day working visit to Riyadh.
This flurry of diplomatic activity between Syria, Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, and Riyadh, broadly focused on regional security and
occurring in the runup to the latest U.S.-Iraq confrontation,
could be but a continuation of the movement toward a regional
security alliance that we were tracking earlier this summer.
However, it becomes more interesting in light of an additional
Iranian diplomatic initiative. Last week, Iranian commerce
Minister Mohammad Shariatmadari visited Iraq to discuss trade
development. On November 2, Tehran announced that Kharrazi will
pay a visit to Baghdad in the near future. The date for the trip
has not been announced, but Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister
Mohammad Sadr told the Tehran Times that after Kharazi's trip,
Iranian First Vice-President Hassan Habibi would travel to Iraq.
Habibi would be the most senior Iranian official to travel to
Iraq since the Iranian revolution.
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and Syria began to discuss the idea of
a regional security body, a kind of Arab-Persian "NATO,"
following the anti-climactic conclusion of the last major U.S.-
Iraq standoff in February. Faced with what looks like another
such confrontation, that process may be reaching fruition. That
being the case, the meeting of the foreign ministers of the
Damascus Declaration countries, scheduled for November 11-12, may
be the event to watch. The Damascus Declaration was signed in
March 1991, immediately after the Gulf War, by the eight Arab
member states of the coalition that drove Iraq from Kuwait. One
of the main features of the accord, which has yet to be
implemented, was to have been security cooperation. The agenda
for next week's meeting of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Kuwait,
Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates includes
cooperation, the Mid-East peace process, Iraq, Iran, the Syrian-
Turkish crisis, and terrorism. Judging from the pre-conference
diplomacy, we expect the participants to emerge from the meeting
with some substantial initiatives, and perhaps a new regional
security arrangement.
The question then becomes what position will they take on Iraq?
First, they could emerge prepared for another U.S. led effort to
finally oust Saddam. Judging by growing regional dissatisfaction
with U.S. policies and behavior, Washington's unreliability in
these crises, and Iran's overtures to Iraq, this scenario is
unlikely. Support for sanctions against Iraq showed signs of
flagging after China, Russia, and France called for ending the
embargo last week. With international resolve on sanctions
fading, the U.S. is also losing international support and
political will for a military option in Iraq.
More likely, expecting little of the U.S., the Damascus
Declaration countries and Iran are preparing their own policy
toward Iraq. Based on the current balance of forces, it is not
likely to involve a coordinated attack on Iraq, but rather some
form of containment and gradual acceptance of Iraq back into the
Gulf community.
Iran, Syria, Egypt, and the Saudis recognize that the chance of
military intervention in Iraq is decreasing, and as a result the
balance of power is again shifting in the region. This is
forcing Iraq's neighbors to examine and redefine their positions.
They are preparing to take matters into their own hands, and as
they do not appear prepared to use military force against Iraq
themselves, then reconciliation with Iraq has become a definite
possibility. Interestingly enough, this sentiment is growing
even within Kuwait, and was last voiced by a Kuwaiti strategist
at a seminar on Gulf security held last month. Sami al-Faraj
reportedly said, "If we still consider our neighbor a pest, isn't
it wise to put an end to this by directing the attention of this
neighbor to the common interests that bring us together."
This may be the last post-Gulf War U.S.-Baghdad crisis, for
however Washington resolves this crisis, it is likely to solidify
the nascent regional alliance. If Washington backs down once
again, then the Damascus Declaration countries and Iran know that
they have no further use for the U.S. in the region. If the U.S.
strikes at Iraq inconclusively, they will draw the same
conclusion. And if the U.S., against all odds, succeeds in
unilaterally driving out Saddam Hussein, then the backlash
against U.S. hegemony could itself help forge the regional
alliance. In the end, we may soon see the birth of a new order
in the Middle East.
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