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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sam who wrote (6242)11/5/1998 4:42:00 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7841
 
I understand, but I'm pretty sure it was on the upside. Of course there are sellers, but it took alot more sellers to fufill the single buy orders -- if you know what I mean.

I would guess that's a sign that the momentum players are in.




To: Sam who wrote (6242)11/5/1998 4:45:00 PM
From: louis mason  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7841
 
How do the block trades jive with the closing loss for SEG today? With other stocks I've held block trades usually starts to mean the price is going down because large investors are selling. Is it possible to discern if these large trades were initiated on the buy or sell side?

l mason



To: Sam who wrote (6242)11/5/1998 6:23:00 PM
From: William Epstein  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 7841
 
Puff Daddy;

Sorry, I had to leave at midday. From what I can see the specialist has to be shorting to supply all that stock. He can't possibly have that much in inventory. This isn't necessarily bad. What we see is a legitimate use of short interest. It is being used here to maintain an orderly market. It means the stock must decline at some point so he can cover. The accumulation of shorts will force the price downward. However, it may not be too far or for too long. Just what he considers necessary to make a profit. Large blocks on upticks are always an indication of short sales. NYSE rules require the specialist to short only on upticks. Effectively, he is selling into the market but he is not selling real stock. Then he finishes the day with a negative close when the big block trades are completed. The heavier than normal volume of the last three days is also confirmation that he is loaded down with shorts. Its the only business I know of where you can sell hot air and make real money. The conditions described above are a classic to a shorting spike. What will happen to the stock over the next several weeks or months depends on whether there is another spike next week or the week after. If there are 2 spikes with a pullback in between it means a serious, extended decline afterward. Check SEG's long term chart on BigCharts and you'll see what I mean. It can also mean that SEG will report a good quarter in Jan. and the specialist knows this. He would want to clean out his shorts and do some accumulating during the next 2 mos., at lower price levels, so that he is postioned to go long at that time and to sell into market demand again. The timing seems perfect. The specialist has absorbed a lot of selling for the last 3 weeks and I have commented on this in more than one post. Now you can all see why.

My best guess, at this point, is that after a decline the stock will rise into the 30's and stay there during the next few mos.. I am not ready yet to commit to being bullish without more confirmation. However, I am very hopeful for the first time since 2/97.
PHOTOMAN