David,
Believe me, I'm as frustrated as anyone with the stock's price. However, I don't watch the tape, and get worried every time there is a down tick in PARS.
I wish the stock was trading at $2 1/2 but I don't lose any sleep over it. I was told that the prices that matter are the ones in which you buy and sell the stock, and not what happens in between (all that is of no importance because all the profits and losses are only paper ones).
Now, I don't plan on selling my shares anytime soon, so I'm not too worried. As for the price I bought the stock, I initially bought shares in late '96 at $1 1/4 and have added more at several occasions when the stock pulled back (just like it is doing now).
I agree, wall-street is up more than 20% in the past 4 weeks and we haven't done that well. However, I'm quite sure that by the time I start selling some of my position (let's say in 2-3 years), my overall return would outperform any index you can think of (by an overwhelming margin too). So the Dow and S&P got an early lead on me, SO WHAT !!!, I have plenty of time to catch up and make up for lost time.
You asked if I'm still defending PARS. Well, David, I don't change my mind that often (surely, I won't change my views because the stock lost some ground), especially if nothing has changed in the business. Remember, the BUSINESS is what I follow and try to analyze (that's what one should concentrate on, if one wants to be successful over time), not the stock's price.
I don't think the stock will fall as low as $1.25, but even if it does and nothing has changed in the company, I will not change my views. If nothing fundamental has change, and the company is still on track, than it will sign an HU211 partner early next year and with that partner's help it will bring HU211 to the market. If nothing fundamental has changed (and we all agree about that), than Lotemax and Alrex will also pick up steam, reach the European market sometime next year and LE-T will also be approved by the FDA by 2000.
If all these happen, we are talking of a company that will earn about $1 per share in 2001, making it at least a $20 stock.
If I sell my shares at such time (and I'm not sure that I will), that's a 10 bagger from today, or 3 years time. Show me one stock or index that has the potential of posting such a gain. I did have more than one IF up there, but those IF's are all reasonable (I didn't say IF the company found a cure for aids or anything wild).
PR is not magic, putting out 5 press releases a month won't necessarily drive the stock higher. Shouting as hard as you can won't always get people to listen. When you have a good story and it keeps on improving, people will listen to that story.
PARS has a great story, and it's just getting better. I understand that Ruder Finn is setting up meetings for PARS management with many money managers over the coming weeks. That's what we hired them for, and that will be sufficient IR work in my eyes.
Screaming from the roof tops doesn't always get the job done. Remember Syquest, who was supposed to be the next Iomega, and had done quite a good PR job (everyone knew who they were). Well, they just went bankrupt. All the people buying shares because of good PR work and because the stock was being pushed for years, are probably not so happy now, are they :-)
You ask : "When does management intend to do something ?"
Well, what exactly do you want them to do. You keep saying push the stock. Could you be more specific. They will be meeting many money managers and presenting the company and its story. Don't you think that's enough. You want them to put out 5 more press releases on HU211 that show the same data from a different angle, and maybe quoting one more MD ? Will that do the trick ?
We're all upset about the stock's price, and believe me I'm just as frustrated as you are. Heck, 30% of my model portfolio on Globes is in PARS, it's slowing me down while the market rebounds, so I should be more upset than you. But I know what PARS is worth, and I'm not worried one bit.
We're all trying to figure out why wall-street doesn't get it. Well, let me reveal a closely guarded secret on wall-street. Not everyone on wall-street is a rocket scientist, the street isn't filled with geniuses, in fact there are plenty of morons on the street managing billions (there are so many that it's scary). Wall-street people aren't all that smart and they make plenty of mistakes for smart small investors to take advantage of. Not only that, there is also a lot of corporate politics involved (besides the large caps and the "hot" stocks who everyone must follow, show me one company that has an analyst covering it who's from a bank that didn't receive some investment banking business from that company). This way many good stocks are missed and remain cheap for quite a while, but one rule always applies : REALITY ALWAYS CATCHES UP.
PARS will be "discovered" by wall-street one of these days, you can bet your house on that. It will probably happen when we sign a deal for HU211 with one of the Merck's and Pfizer's of the world. The same wall-street guys who are staying away now, will be buying like there is no tomorrow at $4, $5 and $6 driving the stock even higher. They will have all the right reasons to buying it, and no client of theirs will ask them why they didn't buy this promising biotech at $2. They wouldn't mind, because by the time they buy at $6, plenty of analysts will have 12 month targets of $15 or higher, so who cares right ? :-)
Take care David, and try not to lose too much sleep over this drop.
Omer |
