To: Nancy McKinney who wrote (19153 ) 11/7/1998 4:19:00 PM From: Craig Stevenson Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 29386
Nancy (and Christine), <<Great CNET story on fibre channel, but Ancr never mentioned. The more I read about the great future for fibre channel, the less I see the name ANCR.>> The short answer is that a rising tide lifts all boats, but I'll try to respond to your concerns in greater detail. Hindsight being what it is, I think it is fair to say that Ancor has suffered from not having the right technology at the right time. The early days of Fibre Channel were concentrated almost exclusively in high performance LAN applications, and Ancor's older gear was adequate for that purpose. Because Fibre Channel didn't achieve significant market penetration in a timely manner, the widespread acceptance of Gigabit Ethernet was the death knell for FC in the LAN, at least in the short term. So, Ancor's sales in that area fell off dramatically, resulting eventually in the deemphasis of the entire market sector. At about the same time that Fibre Channel was losing its lustre in the high-performance LAN area, Storage Area Networks began to be discussed and implemented. I believe that Ancor was slow to react to this new market, and their existing products did NOT appeal to this market. Support for Class 1 (which Ancor had) was not necessary, and low latency Class 2 and Class 3 support (which Ancor did NOT have) were required. The failure to recognize and respond to this paradigm shift in the Fibre Channel market was a critical mistake, in my opinion. The MKII was supposed to address all of these concerns, but the facts prove otherwise. (If anyone doubts this statement, show me some facts and figures that prove that the MKII contributed significantly to revenues since the date of its introduction and general availability.) Even though the MKII was created to compete directly with Brocade's SilkWorm, I now believe that some key features were missing in the original design, such as nameserver support, 2K buffers, public loop support, some management software features, etc. Some of these problems were addressed in subsequent ASIC revisions and firmware and software upgrades, but these changes did not occur quickly enough to change the market dynamics that have contributed to Brocade largely controlling this space. Another contributing factor in Ancor's lack of success to date is that the entire Fibre Channel market, especially switches has simply been slow to develop. Although a lot of blame has been placed on the sales team, there simply was not a market where the existing product could be sold into. We have also witnessed Brocade (and others) develop significant partnerships that may develop into something more. Ancor's relationships to date haven't positively impacted the top or bottom lines very much. Even Hucom ended up costing the company in a big way. After all that, why would a reasonably intelligent person invest in ANCR? <g> Here is why. The overall Fibre Channel is ready to explode, and I believe that the new MKII-8 is the right product at the right time. Furthermore, I believe that a repackaged MKII-16 (rumored), containing the new ASIC from the MKII-8 would also be a compelling product for customers that require additional scalability. Even though I wish the revenue had been recognized over three quarters, the INRANGE deal provides much needed cash, almost no dilution, and gives Ancor the potential to sell product over the next five years into a market that should be expanding rapidly. (And a new market, at that.) Ancor's hiring of many high-profile employees seems to indicate that something good is happening, or is about to happen. Continued insider buying is also a good sign. The bottom line for me is that the only real negatives out there are the potential impact of the lawsuit and the possibility that the Reg D holders will sell shares and push down the price. Given enough time, I think that eventually, Ancor will sign one or more additional OEM deals. This should convince other investors to jump on board. When that happens is anybody's guess. Until then, things could be volatile. I hope this helps. It is only my opinion. Ancor (as always) still needs to DELIVER on the promises. That is the ONLY way to silence the critics and restore investor confidence. Craig