To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (17449 ) 11/5/1998 10:32:00 PM From: Lee Lichterman III Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
>> I Love Cash << I love cash too but What I am most mad about is I finally gave in and carefully picked some longs to trade since I saw the market was going up. I didn't pick any of the hyped stocks with lousy balence sheets, negative earnings or accounting games that looked like they increased earnings when revenues were down or vice versa. I played a few calls on solid growth companies with real earnings etc and so far have been rewarded with 25% returns while the cruddy stocks would have returned multiple 100s of percent as they shot through the roof. While I have long thought that DELL was over valued, it is a real company with real earnings and a fast growth rate. As such, I still momentum traded it short term. It is performing rather poorly so far (even though it is up roughly 60% from it's low) compared to the other companies. KEA has been increasing earnings at over 100% for the last few years and is still roughly 50% below its high yet is trading at a PE of 30. I hold calls on KEA, want to get calls on DELL if it will show some strength. I have a few others on my watch list that should be moving but are not also. INTC is a leader, but it is a leader that won't be growing like it used to anymore. It shot through the roof. MU won't be in the green without accounting tricks for years to come yet it is now at a year high. While IBM is learning to be a leader again in services, software and even building a few boxes that are decent again, it still has to manipulate it's books to look good and if it wasn't worth over 100 before, why now when the world is in danger of recession and they have more global exposure than everyone else they compete against. They even warned that the future would be a struggle and yet they have gone up 30% since earnings. I am not saying this market can't go up more, I actually think it might after catching up on some reading. I am just saying the wrong companies are leading the charge. MU has performed fantastically in stock price action yet today Rockwell announced it was going to spin off it's semi industry. They aren't doing that because semis are strong! They are trying to seperate themselves from that blood sucking business. MU has been known for defying logic. Heck, maybe if we bomb the factory tomorrow it will go up another 100% due to the fact that they will lose less money by not producing anything <g> GZ and many of the others on the futures thread believe we will continue the climb to flirt with the old highs before turnings back. I guess I will have to watch my trendline for resistance close to see. I do see the faint outline of a slanted H&S on the closing price DOW chart which would project to a 50% retrace of our gains as a minimum drop. I still am not counting on any real large pullback though until I see more weakness in foreign markets or there is some heavy news on our shores. I do however still think we will be topped out by 18 November and I won't be long then no matter what. Still not sure what to do tomorrow with the calls I still have ( at least they are in the green some). I will check out AMR though as a possible candidate. Watch out for GERN. I saw on a few threads that it was being pumped by TMEX. I hadn't heard much about him lately until that WSJ article. Now I guess people are paying attention to his schemes again. Lee