To: Robert Graber who wrote (919 ) 11/10/1998 9:10:00 AM From: let Respond to of 1200
INTERVIEW - Cognos CEO upbeat on growth outlook November 9, 1998 08:10 PM Eric Auchard NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Cognos Inc. CA:CSN COGNF President Ron Zambonini said he expects long-term growth to pick up from current levels of just over 20 percent per year as fast-growing Internet software revenues displace sales of older products. In the near-term, the chief executive said in an interview on Friday he was confident Cognos can meet analysts' expectations for earnings and revenues for the rest of its fiscal year, which ends in February 1999. Over time, the company's growth rate will move closer to the 30 percent or better it is experiencing in its core data mining software business -- the area that should represent about three-quarters of the more than $300 million in revenues that analysts expect the company to report this year, he said. In addition, Cognos revenues from its 30-year-old line of mainframe software development tools should remain stable this year and not decline as originally expected, Zambonini said. However, he added that such revenues should decline over time. Referring to the 30 percent plus annual growth rate for the company's core data mining or so-called "business intelligence" software, Zambonini said "We see ourselves as being able to maintain that rate for some time." For the year, Wall Street is looking for revenues of around $304 million, up from $245 million in fiscal 1998 and for earnings of $1.35 per share for fiscal 1999 versus $1.11 per share last year, he said. "We're comfortable with 35 cents for the third quarter and we're comfortable with estimates for the full year," he said, referring to the third quarter consensus estimate and to projections for both revenues and earnings for fiscal 1999. Cognos is a leading supplier of so-called business intelligence software used by companies to track trends in key business operations by mining huge organizational databases. Measured in revenues from business intelligence software, Cognos has about 26 percent of the market, ahead of rivals Business Objects SA BOBJY , Brio Technology Inc. BRYO and units of Oracle Corp. ORCL and Seagate Technology Inc. SEG , Zambonini said, citing industry statistics. He said Microsoft's MSFT new thrust into the database management market is a watershed event for the business intelligence industry and should help further legitimate the uses of such software and expand Cognos' potential market. Microsoft is set to announce next week its long-awaited SQL Server 7.0 database system, which allows companies to run their corporate databases over low-cost personal computer networks. "We believe the market is now going to shift toward medium-sized and smaller companies," Zambonini said of Microsoft's effect on the market for database tools, which now largely consists of the world's largest 2,000 or so companies. Sales of the company's newer Internet-ready products are fueling the company's growth and will account for half of the $230 million in revenue that analysts project from business intelligence products this year, Zambonini said. The company's data mining software tools, which previously were designed to operate on closed local area networks, now run over company intranets, or Internet-based office networks. Fueled by the need to update older computer systems to make them ready for the Year 2000 date changeover, the older Cognos revenue stream should hold steady at $70 million for the year ending in February, unchanged from year-ago levels, he said. ((-- Eric Auchard, New York newsdesk, 212-859-1840)) REUTERS