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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Mo who wrote (27)	11/5/1998 11:41:00 PM
From: AugustWest	Respond to of 20297

hi Maurice, after reading the article you just posted, I feel even more secure with my position in CKFR, and now am beginning to grasp the concept that this thing- 'the net' is bigger than any of us really can put a finger on right now. It's rather interesting that there are only 27% of the households connected, yet from my understanding, AT&T began their E-billing with out a lot of fan fare because they didn't want their system swamped with people wanting to sign up. Now, fast forward say 5 or 8 years. Do you think percentage is going to decline? And as our children grow up with computers in school, they will be fully comfortable with them, much like I am with the T.V.(I do remember having just one black and white for a while growing up). I do tend to agree with the part where he states to hit the critical masses, it has to be almost as easy as the T.V. But all good things in all good time. If CKFR already has the early lead, and billers and bankers remain comfortable with their(CKFR) business plan, then I find it hard not to accept Tom's target price of what $200+ in 2003. I still think CKFR is superior to anything I have seen, and those of us who are here early(while painful at times) will reap the full reward. Just hope we don't sell out on the last camel hump.

To: Mr. Mo who wrote (27)	11/6/1998 9:26:00 AM
From: TLindt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 20297

Auggie had some really good points... This is one thing which interested me when dave_s recently collected SI t-shirts for making the 6,000,000 posting. Here are all of the million marks... Message 6000000 Message 5000000 Message 4000000 Message 3000000 Message 2000000 Message 1000000 While the posts have no relevance here, the time frame between them does IMO. Because in a way they mirror how this internet is being used by more and more of us on a daily basis to do simple things. ie you can draw a parallel between the timeframe in these SI million marks, the percentage increases in portal users, with e-mail users, on line brokerage services...and many other services based on internet delivery today as useage increases time spent here vs their TV Tube or Radio Tuner. The biggest problem will e-bills at this time is there is only one site in all the billions out there where you can go to pay one, and good luck finding that site. And if you do by chance find it...there are only 16 or 17 of the nations top 100 billers there ready to deliver an e-billing, and most on a limited geographical area or in pilot. But is this really a problem? The author states... The Web needs its own Milton Berle, the performer whose popular show in the 1950s got people to buy TV sets. In fact, it needs many Milton Berles. And the Web needs much better business models, so companies there can earn profits, not just publicity. I propose that e-billing is one of those "many Milton Berles". I simply take the last sentence backwards...CheckFree gets no publicity, is working on a much better business model, positioned to earn profits based on usage. Yes bandwidth is currently a problem...the PC has it's problems like also stated. But if you think about it I'm sure somebody once said, 'there will never be a mass consumer market for the Automobile, there aren't any good roads to drive them on.' And that must have been a majority opinion back then...because to my knowledge most of us did not receive 1000's of shares of Ford & Exxon at Birth that our Great Grand Parents squirled away for future generations. I am a firm believer that e-commerce in general, and CheckFree in particular are also coming on in this knowledge vacume. Computer 'geek' investments...I see it, you see it, we see it. Why? Because we are here now using this thing, and watching it grow on a daily basis. So who got the shares of Ford & Exxon? Not me, my Great Grand Parents were simple farmers using horses who could bearly speak the english language. I think those shares are in the hands of some those early adopters of the Automobile, or those which built it or were drilling and producing oil...just a guess. I never had the chance to meet my Great Grand Parents, they lived only into the 1940's...but I can't help but wonder if my Great Grand Pa didn't once in his later years reflect back on the day he first saw an Automobile. Was he on a wagon headed for town, working in the fields? His first thoughts....then live long enough to see it's first 40 years of development....I think you summed it up best. I am forever trying to sell Checkfree to my friends and acquaintances, with some success. But there is a large segment of the population that is still very comfortable licking stamps and has no desire to change. Online banking is not something they think they need. On top of that, they don't understand computers and the internet. Maurice...the point is; I don't think if you lived way-back-when you could have changed my Great Grand Pa's mind either on the Automobile, and you were his next door neighbor stopping by to show him your new Automobile. And if in 90 years you are totally wrong about the internet going mainstream taking e-commerce and banking, & billing with it, like the Auto, TV or Radio...believe me; 1) no one will ever know it, except for yourself licking your wounds till the day you die over the stupid spoiled investments you've made or 2) But if you are right, I'm right our Great Grand Kids will know exactly what we were thinking when we first saw this internet thing and stuck our money out in front of it. One, by the money we pass foward to them...and Two, and this is the killer, they should still be able to read our posts we make hear today 90 years from now in the SI 1998 archives. If so..then here's the message to my Great Grand Kids. Always do those things which you believe in...time will tell you if you are wrong or right...blind faith was important in these early days of the internet. Stay out of Mamma's Gin....and enjoy your families. Your Stupid Great Grand Pa from Michigan God what I would give to know what my ancestors thought and felt...This internet will forever change our World! Try doing that on your TV.

To: Mr. Mo who wrote (27)	11/7/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: g_m10	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

Maurice, Those are the questions that are on everybody's mind. Let's do some math. I don't remember exact numbers, so please correct if I am wrong. Also, I will try to be conservative, but fill free to knock down any number if you think it is too optimistic. 1. I believe that there are 70 mln households in the US. 700.27=18.9 mln Let's assume that only a half of them - 9.45 mln will do Internet banking. 2. Other assumptions: -only 1/3 of them (3.15 mln) will go thru CF; -CF will charge $0.20 per bill; -every household pays 10 bills a month (120 bills a year); I included mortgage/rent, one insurance, one credit card, one phone line, electric, gas/oil, water, paper, cable, ISP.; -there are 55 mln CF shares around; (3.150.20*120)/55=$1.37/share will add to the bottom line of the company. It already broke even, has no debt, so $1.37 will immediately affect stock price. With P/E=30, I don't think it's unreasonable a year from now, we arriving at stock price $40. Please note, I didn't count businesses with their dozens and hundreds daily payments, ACH, etc. Just households that ripe for ebanking and are waiting for banks. After City stepped in, banks can't afford to wait on side lines for to long. These days not too much customers' loyalty left. This is just my 2c. Any opinions on my estimates?