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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3659)	11/6/1998 12:09:00 AM
From: Phil(bullrider)	Respond to of 4634

Roger, I don't know whether or not this information is real, but it is as believable as the fact that people are investing in the "Internuts" because of "hits" as opposed to earnings. Oh well, Have fun, Phil

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3659)	11/6/1998 12:14:00 AM
From: put2rich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

Roger, A confused question is if one day Yahoo suddenly dissappears then do we have chaos or miss something valueable? If it is then the stock can climb to the sky, if not then it is unbelieveably overvalued!

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3659)	11/6/1998 2:57:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

This has been a favorite theory of the Yahoo bears since the company went public (I know, because I tried to short Yahoo a long time ago...before I turned bullish on the company). There is no doubt that a large slice of the "hits" come from sources other than a human click. But it really doesn't matter. What does matter is that advertisers feel they are getting great results. Yahoo has executed beautifully - have to give them that. I can't go long on the stock now, but I still would still strongly recommend avoiding it as a short. Yahoo's business model is now proven, and it could be a long, long time before investors settle on some way of valuing these companies. Also remember that the float remains tight. I think a lot of people assume this situation is analogous to something like the Polaroid stock bubble of the early 70s. I don't think so. I don't believe Yahoo is going to take the same trajectory; however, I also don't believe the stock can continue its torrid pace forever. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I'll just be a spectator.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3659)	11/6/1998 4:20:00 AM
From: Bill Ulrich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

Roger, re: YHOO and falsely generated clicks. This page inflation may be real. However, I don't think it would impact the stock price as you suggest. Net stat analysis is rapidly becoming refined, and companies who establish their worth on net traffic report many other numbers aside from 'hits' and 'page views' in an attempt to balance the view. Page views alone, as a basis of value, aren't typically used by reputable companies. A stat which is now commonly reported is 'Unique IPs'&#151that is, the number of individual IP addresses accessing one's site (and the growth thereof). This can give a clearer picture regarding distinct users&#151a 'java clicker' would simply filter out as one user due to the IP, regardless of the page views. Last numbers I saw for YHOO from Boardwatch were +30,000 new unique IPs per month. As with any other net stat, it has some flaws. Notably, it's difficult to distinguish individual AOL users. Thus, it's considered best by many companies who are serious about their stats, to use a broad variety of analysis parms.