To: On the QT who wrote (76824 ) 11/6/1998 11:44:00 AM From: Chuzzlewit Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Good morning QT, You gave the following example in your reply to me about my criticism of the A/D metric:Lets look at what we do know. Dell can show a buy for 10,000 shares at, let us say $75.00, then a number of smaller sells at, lets say, 6 sells of 1000 shares at $ 75.250, 75.250, 75.125, 75.125 , 75.0625 and 75.00. In this example, we see that 10,000 shares were bought and 6000 shares were sold. So while the stock price remains the same, the net accumulation of stock, 4000 shares are temporarily taken off the table. Now it is reasonable to conclude that large blocks of buys are more likely to be institutional buys as opposed to ordinary buys. If they are institutional buys, they more likely will remain off the table, for longer periods of time than ordinary buys. This then creates a smaller pool of available stock and most likely, if this accumulation continues,the stock price will tend to go up. Your answer contains a number of implications which may or may not be true. For example, You suggest that block trades are institutional (correct) but then you look at only one side of it. If 10,000 shares are traded (regardless of the price) it is likely that one institution is buying them from another institution, the the effect is a was regardless of the increase or decrease in share price. Secondly, you make the tacit assumption that the time series for institutional trades is correct. This is frequently not true. Often the price has been agreed to well before the trade goes through, so there is considerable noise. Finally, you expressed the opinion that there is less turnover in institutional accounts than in individual accounts. I have seen no data on this issue, and would be frankly surprised if it were true. I think that if you were going to measure institutional accumulation you would need to be able to see institutions buying from individuals. Conversely, distribution is would be evidenced by selling to individuals. I don't know of many individuals who buy or sell 10,000 shares of Dell at a clip. I think we have discussed this issue to death. I think I must remain skeptical pending real data. TTFN, CTC