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To: Richard Query who wrote (17117)11/6/1998 8:28:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
I stole this from another thread (credit to James Irwin)

THE TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR HANDLING TROUBLED STOCKS

1) It is never too late to make your final confession. If it is too early to buy more, sell the stock.
2) Forget cost. Cost is as useful as the devil's promises. The stock owes you nothing. It has no memory.
3) The selling decision is analog, not digital; it does not have to be all or nothing. Selling part of a troubled position is like going to confession-it clears the mind for future decisions.
4) Be judgmental. Corporate sinners fall into two classes: misdemeanors and arsonists. Misdemeanors are sins that cause the stock to fall less than 15%; arsonists drop the stock more than 15%.
5) The penalty for a misdemeanor is probation. Sell at least one-quarter, if not one-third of the position, and keep the stock under 24-hour surveillance. Don't even think about giving a stock on probation the benefit of the doubt. If there is any doubt, SELL! Stocks can also go on probation due strictly to their price action, a 20% drop is a good trigger. Stocks come off probation when the news turns positive.
6) Arsonists go directly to jail. Don't ever own a stock in jail. Many times sinners confess further crimes during incarceration; these jailhouse confessions increase the severity of the charge and lengthen the sentence. It is easier to make 25% on a new stock than 10% on a stock in jail. To obtain a pardon, the company must announce significant positive news, an unmistakable sign that the company's future is brighter.
7) Earnings drive stocks. Management knows this great commandment and therefore will use every accounting trick and every reserve in the cupboard to hide the cockroaches so that the quarterly earnings flow smoothly. But cockroaches are prolific breeders and there is seldom just one lone cockroach. If you see one, make the logical earnings cut and then multiply by two, if not three. Stocks rarely outperform when analysts are cutting estimates.
8) Negative facts and nasty rumors also drive stocks. Competitors, shortsellers and lawyers are the devil's accomplices. Treat negative news from these sources with the same fear as an earnings disappointment.
9) Be wary of the telltale signs of future sinners such as inventories and/or receivables growing faster than sales, a "temporary" sales slow down, earnings that meet expectations due to favorable adjustments below the operating line, an ROE materially higher than the ROA, cash flow earnings that differ markedly from reported earnings, growth spurts that disguise cyclical companies, complex companies, managements that underinvest in the future, and any and all excuses.
10) Know that the good Lord does not care one iota about your performance. Forget prayer and concentrate on that rare set of traits that all good sellers possess-guts and discipline.

The Ten Commandments of Selling Troubled Stocks can be reduced to The Two Great Commandments:

1) Bad news tends to beget more bad news, and
2) Successful investors quickly admit and address their mistakes.



To: Richard Query who wrote (17117)11/9/1998 8:34:00 AM
From: Richard Query  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
AFCI CBSI etc update

AFCI held it's gains nicely, looking to play on any strength

CBSI +1 1/2 Friday to 25 3/8 still looks real good to me

CNC closed above 36, look for scalps between 36 & 37 or buy at 37 1/4

TXI another nice day close to resistance took some profits will keep tight stop on remainder



To: Richard Query who wrote (17117)11/10/1998 9:14:00 AM
From: Richard Query  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
updates

AFCI closed unchanged, on positive news. Tight stop warrented

CBSI up nicely again on a down day, early indication opening higher. looking to see low end of target (27) today.

CNC took a hit yesterday being part of the S&P500 still good for scalps

TXI closed my remaining position for nice gain

LUX Failed to break out, and pulled back to support. could be a good play with tight stop.