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To: Dale Baker who wrote (1692)11/6/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: Dale BakerRespond to of 118717
 
Here is a drama for everyone to follow. I have Jan 30 MU puts:

14:20 ET ******

MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC. (MU) 43 +1/8. A once high flyer is again gaining altitude as the supply for memory chips tightens and raises hopes for higher DRAM prices. Or so goes the story. This is not the first time that Micron has caught the eye of the investors, but it is the first time in more than a year that the stock has traded comfortably above $40 for longer than a day or two. Not since August of 1997 has the stock traded as high as in recent days. Each time, on hopes that the supply glut in the chip market would quickly dissipate and allow for DRAM prices to move higher again. And in each past occasion, notorious bear and highly followed analyst from Merrill Lynch, Thomas Kurlak, has come out and dispelled such notions and punished the stock. While Mr. Kurlak has kept a low profile during the latest run above the $40 mark, it is well known that Merrill retains a neutral stance on the stock Mr. Kurlak would probably explain the latest price uptick as an aberration and a movement that can't be sustained on fundamentals. To his credit, Mr. Kurlak has been right when the stock was the darling of Wall Street and heading for the sky. This of course was in the mid-90s when there was no demand shortage for memory chips and the stock was in high demand for the ability to deliver rising profits. However, since late 1995 when DRAM prices peaked and Mr. Kurlak turned negative on the stock, he has managed to call the turn in the semiconductor market rather well. Each time Wall Street has begotten excited about seeing light at the end of the tunnel, it has turned out to be a freight train. Maybe this time is different, but investors should keep their ears open to hear what Mr. Kurlak has to say on this matter.