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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (8842)	11/6/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

That's funny...The fact that 3dfx underestimated OEM demand makes me very happy. Why? Ok, I can live with a bit of caution and slight underestimation, but I don't like it when orders go unfilled because the company can't fill them. Many of those unfilled orders are money in the competetions' pocket, not to mention lost ground for 3Dfx. Like I said, they are a very young company and I don't blame them much for this shortcoming, but I would have had more respect for them if they had executed better. In answer to Michael, they did grossly underestimate the demand. I am always in touch with the companies I invest in and 3Dfx did admit to underestimating the demand. To their credit, they were honest and forthcomming. And they stated that they should be able to meet the demand well as we move into '99 and should be able to take good care of their OEMs. P.S. Tried to short Iomega today but there were no shares available. Damn. Me too, and no cigar here either :( I also tried to short GERN, no cigar there either :( :( May be I need a day trading account so that I won't have to worry about getting a hold of these shares :-/ Anyways, speaking of shorting, I've been looking at the cyclicals for a few days now and I just can't figure out if there is great money to be made on the long side or on the short side. One thing is for sure, there is good money to be made on one side of these trades. I tend to lean on the short side on the fundamental analysis, but the technical picture says these are good long buys as they are all breaking out of their bases. My favorite shorts in there are the steels and CAT. BTW, today Morgan Stanley confirmed my opinion of the cyclicals. So many stocks so little money! Sun Tzu

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (8842)	11/11/1998 6:50:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Pat, I expect 3Dfx to have revenues of 55~65 million this quarter. Do you want to discuss a model for the earnings? BTW, Jeff is right and the margins will not be anywhere close to 40s this quarter. My best guess is a low to mid 30s. Either way, from this quarter on, I should be able to come up with a model that is good at least as a first degree approximation and after this year the model should be good as a second degree approximation. Hope you had a good day, Sun Tzu