To: dealmakr who wrote (31567 ) 11/6/1998 4:52:00 PM From: shust Respond to of 95453
Have a nice weekend!!! Abby Cohen says energy prices may have bottomed By Jennifer Westhoven BOCA RATON, Fla., Nov 5 (Reuters) - Abby Joseph Cohen, one of Wall Street's most-watched stock market analysts, said on Thursday that oil prices could be headed higher, which would boost profits at energy firms and help lift U.S. stock indices. ''It is possible we are close to a trough,'' said Cohen, the U.S. equity market strategist for Goldman Sachs & Co. ''All you have to do, at the least, is assume we will have a normal winter,'' she told a crowd of more than 400 at the 26th annual Securities Industry Association convention. ''A cut in the price of energy means a fairly substantial decline in operating profits, so we may be on the very tip of a positive point of inflection,'' she said. Oil prices have plummeted over the past year, falling from prices of more than $20 a barrel down to a 12-1/2 year low in June. They have recovered slightly since then, but not much, with oil trading at about $14 a barrel. Shares of energy-producing companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 22 percent in the first half of 1998, she said, battered by the global slowdown and the rising dollar. Most of the world's oil supply is priced in dollars. Oil profits should also be stimulated by the pullback in the greenback. ''Nations in Asia, particularly Japan, the world's second largest economy, saw dramatic price increases,'' Cohen said, which strangled energy demand. A jump in oil prices, and a resulting jump in oil shares, could help U.S. stocks reach Cohen's bullish targets. Oil companies make up 7.6 percent of the S&P 500. Cohen is projecting the Standard & Poor's 500 will hit about 1200 to 1250 in 12 months. Cohen, who had been bearish on oil stocks for roughly two years, first became bullish on the issues at the end of August. On the recent stock market volatility, Cohen said that interest rate cuts by global central banks as well as statements by the Group of Seven ''have been extremely helpful to calm things around the world.'' Cohen still remains steadfastly bullish. ''The bull market is not over and the U.S. economic expansion is not over,'' she said. ''This has been primarily a market event and not an economic event.''