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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: billy d who wrote (1387)	11/6/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 10280

billy d: Now I realize GERN is quite far away from success and no doubt a sure thing but why do stocks like SEPR, who treat symptoms, rally so strongly when a company like GERN may have the key to solving so many problems leaving drugs which treat symptoms out in the cold? To me this is strange but then again so is this market. I think you said it yourself when you said GERN is quite far away from success. For a company like SEPR the market doesn't really look beyond say 10 years in evaluating its worth. I very much doubt whether anything announced by GERN recently will have the slightest effect on anything that SEPR will sell over that period. I personally exited from my few shares of GERN this morning at 19 7/8. I don't think it's a good short, however, as there is too much chance of collaborative agreements with big pharma that could boost it again, and I might re-enter on weakness. I tend to play what I call "ENMD roulette" by laying in a small supply of shares in a few publicity-prone companies while nobody is paying any attention to them, and then selling if/when there is news. I don't confuse it with serious long-term investing (like in SEPR), though. Peter

To: billy d who wrote (1387)	11/6/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

don't get too hung up on geron you cannot translate what happens in these early trials with long term human studies also, someone right now may have a better molecule than geron and hit the market before them don't forget that sepr is IMPROVING already proven drugs it is a far safer investment unless you are a very wily trader curtis

To: billy d who wrote (1387)	11/8/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 10280

Billy, I think there would be a delayed reaction to any news on Oxy getting by Phase II and even the intermediate-term effect would not be huge. Biggest reason is that this is not an area of Sepracor's expertise and they do not have a way to market the drug and would need a partner. Speaking of which, I forgot who makes Ditopran. They obviously would be the logical choice. Still, something pretty big must be in the offing to make this thing approach a $3 billion market cap. All we need is one more day like Friday and we're there! Wondering at what point the latter convertible bond holders will start shorting against the box to lock in their profits. Their bonds are not callable for over 2 years but if they can lock in a sure double (ie SEPR stock price of $80) some of the more conservative ones may do it.