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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom D who wrote (24832)	11/7/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: Don Westermeyer	Respond to of 164684

>I figure AMZN is good for revenues of $600M this year and $1.2 >billion next. You've got conservative (Forrester Research) estimates >the US (not counting Europe) internet commerce will roughly double >annually (to $40B in 1999, $100B in 2000, $180B in 2001 and $340B in >2002). I call these conservative because other estimates are more >aggressive. Bezos has already warned not to expect that kind of growth out of AMZN in the future. Of course MSFT warns every quarter also so they can play 'beat the numbers'. >In addition to overall internet growth, you've got AMZN adding a new >e-commerce market sector every four months. There is also geographic >expansion yet to be scaled up. Not to mention the economies of scale >which come with adding markets. That doesn't mean AMZN's growth rate (especially earnings) will continue. It gets harder and harder to sustain growth. If book sales flatten at $1B, then they need $1B from somewhere else, etc. Also, from what I can tell, AMZN's profitability is a lot further in the future than a lot of analysts are willing to admit. Even if AMZN's revenue were 10X what they are now (say $5B) and given a generous 5% net profit margin AMZN would make about $5/share. And when will that be - 15 years from now if everything goes perfect? $130+ is a lot to pay for a $5 return 15 years from now. >Last weekend my wife and I did all our Christmas shopping in about >one hour. On the internet. That's 16 nephews and nieces, and various >adults. Several places, including, of course, AMZN. I am beginning >to see bricks and mortar stores as doomed anachronisms. I know my >family is ahead of the rest of the population, but there are many >more like us are coming. >AMZN will certainly have competition. But they don't need to >dominate any market. They just need to be a major player in several >markets. Well, I admit that I do plenty of shopping on the i-net also (just got books from AMZN in fact). You will find out a real disadvantage of mail order purchasing if many of those gifts need to be returned. >I have read many dire posts about BKS on this thread 6 to 9 months >ago, that were proven to be wishful thinking from bears. After a >while, they just seem tiresome to me. So, round 2 will give AMZN >more competiton than round 1. AMZN will also be stronger for round >2. So far the bears have been exactly right on the business - more revenue, much more losses. Being right on the stock price is another matter. :) >Given the deep pockets behind AMZN, their connections in the KP >keiretsu, insiders like L. John Doerr plopping down $7M+ to buy more >shares in July, and the Junglee/Planetall angle which has not yet >blossomed, I choose to hold. While I have 8X profits on my money so >far, I see another doubling or two over five years. That is a somewhat weak argument. People buying stock are not 'deep pockets' supporting the company - although it is a good vote of confidence. I could point out all the big money that has gone short in the stock also (so far that money has been wrong). Congrats on your profits but sentiment is mostly what drove this stock up and can change anytime. I've seen plenty of story stocks go to the moon and then come crashing back. Last year it was the Y2K stocks. A few years ago it was BioTech. When growth appears to slow (for any reason) the stock will trade with more traditional valuations given to a retailer. Look at ONSL to see another example what AMZN's valuation could/will trade at. >As a final note, I really wish that bears would not refer to AMZN >bulls on this thread in such disrespectful ways. I am aware that >many are angry that the stock is not doing what fundamental analysis >would predict. But the bulls on this thread are not responsible for >this. I just don't think the disrespect belongs in a forum where we >are all sharing ideas and trying to reconcile differences. Twice in >the past year I have left this thread in anger because of this >problem. I am drawn back by classy people like Glenn, who have a >different view from me, and who have much to teach me, without >belittling me. Well, I do apologize for that. My reference was mostly tongue-in-cheek and not meant to be spiteful. I quit reading this thread a long time ago, very little relevant information seemed to be discussed. FWIW - I am not currently short any stocks. I have been occasionally short AMZN but have luckily missed most of the big moves against my position. I will try to make some money on the short side of this one again though - if I can get shares.

To: Tom D who wrote (24832)	11/7/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

TomD<I am beginning to see bricks and mortar stores as doomed anachronisms. I know my family is ahead of the rest of the population, but there are many more like us are coming> I'm starting to feel that you and your family are even getting ahead of Wall Street. My suggestion is if you want to get that far ahead. Try another planet. By this time next year. The 'Thing' will be a $20 stock or a Sub of AOL. Trust me. ps Did you notice that your hero John Doerr started a new one? It was in yesterdays WSJ. He's joined forces with the inventors of Palm Pilot. Add yet another to the Keiretsu.