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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 007 who wrote (5164)	11/7/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Regarding timing. Good points all. Regarding making money. Don't fight the trend. LT, as much as it seemed impossible a month ago, I believe you will be losing a tremendous portion of your profits before '98 is over. I went long several stocks today (QCOM in particular) and sold all my puts except for Peco Energy. I will dump that the second I see interest rates heading down again. A slight pullback and consolidation is due. My guess is that it will happen the 17th as the market will NOT be happy with anything the FED does. I still don't think they will cut, but regardless the market's rally will take a pause then and correct...getting prepared for a major end of the year rally AND a continuation of it well into 1999. One thing I learned in the oil service sector, obvious fundamentals don't mean a damn thing. Follow the market. Yes there are scary signs out there, but the market doesn't care about them. It has reversed it's down trend and is heading up again. It will take a MAJOR disaster to pull this bull down. As much as it hurts to say, the double bottom we saw in August/October was one of the few buying opportunities of a lifetime. Many of us missed it here because we were so damn sure we were in for much worse. Not the case. I also believe gold will participate in this rally big time and will be good for the rest of the year. That's where I plan to make my money in the near term. I would think January calls would be the best bet here. Trading may pay off here if you are nimble, but I think allowing the upward trend to be your friend will pay off better. Bears beware. It appears as if you are about to be de-clawed. Good luck to all. <H>

To: 007 who wrote (5164)	11/7/1998 8:47:00 AM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

James and Papaya - let me get one thing straight - I recognize the peril of a sharp drop here with all the overbought condition and the still unsound fundamentals with global economics. However, I just keep this piece of info in the back of my mind and not base my day to day strategy on it. When the tide turns, I will probably miss the turning point a little but this scenario is already structured into my holding (with hedging and some puts and sell stop on the unhedged long positions). No one knows when the turning point will be. DOW went up 1500 pts in the past 5 weeks - making it a 300 pt gain per week. If this continues for another 5 weeks, we will get DOW 9500 and by next January we shall see DOW 10000. Can anyone guarantee this will not happen? The chance of this happens is as good as DOW dropping 1500 point in the next 5 weeks. The greater probability is DOW trading between 8400 - 9100 until Christmas is over. Papaya - respect the mystery of the market. Stranger things always (not seldom) happen. Would you expect MU to be above $40 now? I say the chance of MU going to $60 in the next three months is as good as MU dropping to $20 with the greater probability of its trading in +/- $10 range. So how would you prepare for this scenario?

To: 007 who wrote (5164)	11/7/1998 6:44:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

nice post. You're right... I'm an awful trader; that's why I don't do it (G) Hope all understand this when I make moves. I'm often early... but never late. (G) Every now and then I even call tops on the nose, but that's just luck. anyone who tells you differently is selling something. bigger the pop, the bigger the drop... EXACTLY. My target of DOW 4000 is still in effect by Yr-end IMO. the decline will come w/out warning or reason and be fast. By the time we can attach specific news to the decline, we'll have already completed 50% of the drop. I warned many for 2 months before the decline began in July (admittedly early), and I am doing it again. I (or anyone else) won't know when the next downturn is coming until AFTER it has begun (and very likely 800 points form the 2ndary top we're putting in. Anyone that remains long in this mkt is playing w/ fire IMO. Unless you're in the circus, you'll probably get burned (G). -Lucretius BTW- the utilities should crash by the end of next week at the latest (could be this week). If you haven't picked out your favorite dog to short... get on it. SELL ALL BONDS... (they will crash at the same time and cause the bomb in the UTIL- BTW. My target is 7% on the 30 yr bond.)