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To: william j cap who wrote (40752)11/7/1998 12:42:00 AM
From: Carl R.  Respond to of 53903
 
When I look at insider transactions I look more at buys than sells since research has shown that buys are more likely to have predictive power. As I said, the reason is intuitive. There are lots of reasons why someone might chose to sell stock, but only one reason why they would choose to buy it. I do look at sells a little, but then I look more at who is selling and how many people are selling. In other words I would consider it a worse sign if 20 people sold 5000 shares each than if 1 person sold 2 million shares because if 20 people sold at once it makes it more likely that they are all selling for the same reason rather than having individual reasons.

As for jr, I have no idea why he is selling shares. Maybe he is doing estate planning. Maybe he has medical expenses. Maybe he bought a new potato farm (ranch??). Maybe he has a new girl friend. Maybe he wants to fly planes like Appleton. Maybe he has been reading this thread and thinks the stock is going back to single digits.

And that is the point. There are a multitude of reasons for selling. For what it's worth, I suspect it is estate planning. I do know it isn't that he likes to pay cash because, if you recall, a couple of years ago he was forced to sell millions of shares due to the mother of all margin calls. <g>

Carl