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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (24872)	11/7/1998 1:43:00 AM
From: SilverAG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Okay let's say Jupiter's estimates are way off and the online market turns out to be $12 billion. 75% of the $12 billion market share gives AMZN a gross of $9 billion ($9 BILLION gross??) and a net (assuming again 1% net profit margin) of $90 million. That's about $1.76/share earnings, STILL giving AMZN a very high forward P/E of over 70 in the year 2002. And what about the interest on junk bond payments starting in 2003 William?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (24872)	11/7/1998 1:52:00 AM
From: SilverAG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Do you understand what my assumptions are William? I'm assuming that 1. AMZN can kill the competition in CDs, software, videos, & books, taking 75% of the market by 2002. AMZN doesn't even have 50% of the CD market now and they have to compete with Musicboulevard, Cdnow, Soundstone, Bmgmusicservice, Columbiahouse, Walmart & Tower records! 2. Jupiter's forecasts are $6 billion dollars off for 2002. $6 billion is $21.42 for every man, woman and child in America. Of course it was easier for Jupiter's estimates to be off when the overall market is still less than $1 billion, but could they be off by $6 BILLION in 2002? And still AMZN would have a forward P/E of 70 for 2002!!

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (24872)	11/7/1998 5:01:00 AM
From: JBL	Respond to of 164684

"To our customer : Worry not....." ???????? This spin is childish. As if customers cared the least bit about the acquisition of Ingram by B& N... Should customers really worry about more price competition ? No, what customers care most about is price and delivery. In fact, this is wonderful news for AMZN's customers : they will soon be able to get their books for less, and faster... (You also have to wonder how this will affect existing and potential AMZN partners.)