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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31577)	11/7/1998 3:33:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, Sorry guys/gals- been over in the tech stock "feeding frenzy" for the last few weeks. Note that gas prices in North America have not budged a bit this fall. Indeed they have risen to about $2.40/mcf at the hubs at which we deal. While oil sluffs along at $13-14/bbl, gas prices are doing quite fine.. Remember two things I said two months ago. In the oil markets there will always be an overhang of OPEC capacity through the Year 2003, based upon current capital projects in the Middle East being finished. However as a percentage of total world oil production/consumption, that overhang will fall. Second in the North American Gas Market, my sources says that the "pull" will not be there when gas supplies start being used up this winter in North America. Gas deliverability capability in North America is a lot lower than many people think..... Sincerely, Doug F.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31577)	11/7/1998 11:02:00 PM
From: A. Fineigler	Respond to of 95453

Hi Slider, Thanks for an interesting post. I'd like to believe what you say, but there were a couple of things that were hard to accept. Not all, but some. Let's bang through it. The weaker dollar: dollar strength depends on lots of things, not least of which are political stability and foreign investment. In Sept/Oct the Republicans campaign to kick the president out was at its apex, and the stock market collapsed. And Japan anounced semi-believable recovery initiatives. One result was a weaker dollar. Since then, the GOP got their asses kicked and the stock market has recovered. Resultant political stability and reinvestment of foreign funds is likely to drive the dollar higher. Add in the fact that the "we're so smart we can lose billions at a stroke" hedge funds who were exposed to Yen strengthening have now probably done what covering they needed to do - i.e. their wholesale buying of yen using dollars is likely over. So, IMHO dollar weakening will not be significant going forward. Winter: Maybe. If you want to bet on weather try OJ futures. OPEC cuts: Maybe it will happen. If so, maybe it will have a strong effect. Maybe. US E&P Decline: As soon as crude and natural gas hit the right price points a lot of capacity will be brought online pretty quickly. And a lot of new fields will be confirmed. The decline in R-P ratio likely has as much to do with technology as it does with economics. We don't need as high an R-P ratio, because we can find and produce new fields very much faster than before. Rising Asian demand: Yes. Slowly rising. Unless someone does something silly. (But we won't talk about the IMF here - don't mock the afflicted) Inevitable WW economic strengthening in 1 year or so: Well, that's one view. Lots of smart people don't necessarily buy it as being certain, or even likely. "New EU" (or is it the New United States of Germany ?) It took another 54 years ... but victory is in sight. Sorry, but the whole Euro thing is going to be a massive disruption for a couple of years, from all I have read. We'll see. After that your note reiterates on those themes. You might ne right, I guess. Time wil tell. AF