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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (40755)	11/7/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: sandstuff	Respond to of 53903

IMO the final test will be how well DRAM pricing holds up next quarter. Many are shifting plans and increasing wafer starts now because they think the market has bottomed, so I expect a softening as more supply hits the streets. We'll see how "soft" soft is...lol Besides, Dataquest says memory market will increase from $14B to $52B in three years, so how can you lose? <gag me>

To: Carl R. who wrote (40755)	11/7/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Land_Lubber	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl R.: what are you looking for that would indicate a genuine bottom? Things are different now. There is no single bottom. It's not that simple anymore. Fabs closing doesn't mean that the total bit capacity is shrinking because of the HUGE impact of shrinks from 0.31 microns (as some of TI's old fabs) to 0.18 microns (where everyone wants to get as fast as possible). It is a very complex equation on the supply side. The demand side is just as complex, if not more so. New technologies mean dramatically increased bit requirements per box (be it PC, HDTV, or whatever), but box-level demand itself is not stable. An awful lot depends on who buys what between now and Dec. 25. The distribution channels could very-well become clogged again. Business is buying now and early 1999 to ensure Y2K compliance, but after that we could easily see demand plunge, basically due to box-level saturation in both the home and office markets. On the other hand, if the economy is booming, and people have more money to spend than they know what to do with, the reverse will be true. Then on top of all that you have the RAMBUS effect, and how that will impact the demand, the yields, and the margins. Not a simple thing to predict. Bottom line: the DRAM business will in all likelihood not just hit one simple bottom and shoot up (in profitability) for a few boom years. We are looking at a long period of high instability until the DRAM technology reaches its fundamental limits and the emergent winners can just crank these babies out like so many potato chips. The technological cycle-time has overtaken the minimum cycle-time that companies the size of Micron can properly respond to. Stability to the business will not return until technological change slows down (Moore's Law hits the quantum wall). Land_Lubber

To: Carl R. who wrote (40755)	11/7/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl, A move toward consistent profits on an operating basis, an increase in pc prices and dollar demand, increased chip demand in a period that does not include overly optimistic Xmas inventory stuffing, a failure in chip equipment to make kicking out more capacity simple and easy, no financial need for bailouts by larger cos, the Y2K commodity tech disaster to come and go, a competitive box from MUEI, some interest in doing something other than following the leaders, and a decrease in the growth rate of new Megabits coming on line every year. These fundamental factors, combined with a stock price that reflected MU's true business potential, would be the signs needed to stop hating the stock. MB