To: Sig who wrote (76948 ) 11/8/1998 1:19:00 AM From: On the QT Respond to of 176387
Hi Sig, My take on this: Dell is one of the most visible of Large Cap Stocks. I think the Dell story is out there in a big way. Dell has been and continues to be followed, with avid interest by many Market Makers, Institutional Investors and "Retail Investors" (that, for the most part is us). It was and continues to be, one of the most traded stock on any market. I suggest we entertain this take of mine and others to see if we can make some additional sense of the inquires some of us are making. Opinion: When the emphasis on the Large Caps is very favorable, then Dell at least in the past, has almost always received a very big, and from my view, sustainable play, within the Large Caps and more specifically within the Industry Sector. Opinion : We recently came off a period when the Market was in what I call a 'Lull'. Some called a Correction (which I do not necessary disagree with) and other call a Bear Market. During this 'Lull' Market, there was a period where the stock money was in Large Caps to the detriment of Small Caps. Now, within that time frame, investors wanted to still get the kind of returns they were enjoying in the past, but the field narrowed to certain Sectors. Dell Industry Group continued through this time period to generally hold up and even draw a lot of last best place to invest equity money. In that ‘last best place money infusion' some of that layered more heavily on Dell. (Dell sustained it better and returned in profit, better than most). I also believe that a good portion of outside Global money that come into the US during the better times was heavily invested in the Dell Industry Group and in Dell in a big way. I submit, because of Asian difficulties, investors from that area could not sustain supporting their investments here, because of their internal difficulties and because as a Market we also were showing the effects of their difficulties. Money left to go back to the global market of origin (largely Japan) to cover their own difficulties (banking, real estate). Some of that money was big time positive bets on Dell. Fact: Small Caps have in the very recent past shown signs of positive activity. A good deal of investing has recently increased into that grouping. Opinion: Some of the money that was in the Large Cap Stocks is going into the Small Caps Stocks. If that is true, than some of the money that is in the Dell Industry Group may be going there as well. If that is true, then some of the money that was in 'the big money play' in Dell also is going there. I think that is, in part, what we are experiencing now with Dell. This idea of the Bond Market Investors coming out of the woodwork at this time is an opinion shared by me. It remains to be seen as to be seen as to what portion of that money will go into Large Caps vs. Small Caps. Here is an other consideration, I don't view Small Caps as the enemy to the health of the Bull Market as a whole. There is enough evidence to satisfy me that the filtering of money to the Small Caps may be healthy to the recovery of what I view as a past short term lull in our Bull Market. While I believe it is possible that Dell's performance, present and near future could in some meaningful way be lacking and not seen by us and others, I don't see that as anything near probable. I share that because some have introduced the idea or by word language indicated their fear that something is wrong with Dell. I don't share that concern but I do believe that some of the concerns have merit, but differ in the conclusions that may give undue concern about the health of Dell as a company. Thanks for your input. Opinion: The Air Force Bird and sentiment you expressed is appreciated. Fact: QT's Real Player on Windows 98 doesn't work. I can't hear the sound of The Air Force Song. Yet my regular sound works. Fact: QT thus far doesn't know how to fix it! Sincere Regards, QT