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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2302)	11/9/1998 7:28:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 3339

<<It all boils down to who investors want to believe -- the rosy bottom-up forecasts of sector analysts, or the bleak top-down views of economists and strategists.>> Funny thing, estimates. I read in an issue of Smart Money about a year or so ago, that both analysts and economists were nearly always overly optimistic about future earnings. They showed a table with analyst and economists earnings forecasts for the following year for about the last 12 years. Though economists estimates were usually lower- they both consistently overestimated the next year's earnings. If I recall correctly, the economists under-estimated only once out of the 12 years, and the analysts never under-estimated, usually wildly over-estimating. One would tend to believe this trend will continue. TW