To: MONACO who wrote (21289 ) 11/7/1998 4:01:00 PM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (4) | Respond to
SOX 330 is my target if we have this second close of SOX over 275. Yesterday it took a long time but it crossed over I would like to think that a retest of 1130 is overdue if not 1102, I was looking at move of composite when it bounces of 200 days MA, last five times it has moved quite a distance rather last time the gap after a bounce of 200 days was huge between the composite and the 50 days MA, that has not yest fuly opened and the kind of oversold situation we have in many stocks we can see a very strong move, I think calling the top now would be tricky as more secure would be not to call anything but in my opinion the test of 1320 cannot be disregarded more so the conditions and environment of the test was exremely severe, if it had to break nothing could be more negative than what the market was hit with on 8th Oct...anyone who thought that this is a bear market rally is now realising that what a chance he has missed to pick a celar two year tested resistance of 1320 which naturally became an excellent support and a great trap of shorts I have knowledge that anyone who was anything was short and had to run for cover, lot of cash still sits on the side lines and the economic numbers are coming strong and good where no sign of inflation is visible, breakout will bnever tell you a reversal when we go into new teritotry momentum takes over that is what happened in the bonds from 131 to 135 rally little anyone ralised that it was more to do with squeeze than actual deflation although this thread has always concentrated on fundamentals hence deflation was not that much of a threat for us, right now I will give you another example we saw 1080 and it was the second break above 1080 that some again were calling a huge drop now the little I know about TA it is never to be done when you have major break outs you don't second guess you let the market break your supports to get in the short side, for me we can have a perfect 1771 legitimate test of composite and that is what I am loking at 1810 is my first support if that is taken out I will be shorting it until 1771 or 830 on BKX it will only happen if BKX takes out 860- or SOX 252 -- this is going to be a market which will now stabilise between 1250 and 990 area, for me I will see this 990 as strong numbers start coming in after DEC and we will see talks of inflation instead of deflation so market will continue to see saw and go higher with these conflicting reports but compounding interest and republican change of gaurd where legislation instead of Ms Lewinski remains only chance for the republicans to take the White House back we will see tax cuts and surplus not being wasted on pork barrel projests so my visibility is clear on long term, the small cap rallies according to gurus I listen and respect don't die in one or two months they continue for long time this is a rally powered by small caps and looks like a real one if 95-98 rate cuts helped the big caps rally this 98-99 unique strong economy cuts will help a small cap rally.
