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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PAL who wrote (76961)	11/7/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: Don Martini	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Right, PAL, selling puts can be dangerous, like riding the tiger. Consider VIVUS: This moron sold 35s for $8.50, didn't watch it, then held on hoping for a recovery, but VVUS fell like an rock and I lost about $25,000, won the idiot award. Then there was APM. So I'm really not so smart. In the case of Dell right now: I believe in the stock, particularly in Michael, he's quick but he's not slick. I think 11/18 earnings will be sanguine, Dell will stay up I'd like to have more shares [This is the main point] What can go wrong: A. Earnings can disappoint, stock may drop 5-10 points B. Iraq may nuke Israel, or some such event, market will implode C. International financial catastrophe, market will collapse D. Some calamity I haven't thot of will occur My estimate of these probabilities before 11/20/98 X-Date: A. 50/50. I think earnings will be fine but Dell may drop anyway B. Will take that bet for 12 days C. Not this month D. I'm not smart enough to worry about what I haven't thot of I'm also short 45 '99 and 2001 puts. More danger here, but I took substantial payments, and enjoy risk. The probabilities of a huge financial crisis in the next 2 years is considerable but everyone who owns shares is exposed to this possibility. Shorting puts just fits my personality, and with Dell it often pays better than buying short term calls. Leap calls are another matter, biiig money can be made there. A tremendous slice of what I've learned and made money with came from this thread, and I certainly don't wish to gather a following. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day! Happy investing, PAL! Don