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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (12135)	11/7/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

Right on the Money, Charles! That's why all the negative stuff that Toy, Daniel, and I are spouting really does matter. Consider, what seems to be priced into the stock: 1) Microsoft eliminates Novell in the Directory market. 2) No serious action from the DOJ case 3) Microsoft wins the embedded market 4) Microsoft wins the palm-top market 5) Microsoft gets browser share high enough to dominate standards (IBM secret memo suggests that 70% would do that). 6) Microsoft does not lose much of the client market. I rate the chances of these things occurring as: 1) 20% (Novell could screw up, but a 2 year lead is gonna be hard to overcome) 2) 50% (DOJ wins case in my view, but litigation could go on for a long time) 3) 80% (Wind River/QNX is terrific, but Microsoft has eaten markets before) 4) 80% (Microsoft will eventually get this right) 5) 50% (Netscape has a lot of other companies behind them right now trying to keep this from happening) 6) 80% (Linux has a way to go, but Apple has shown surprising strength. What does an Linx Server/iMac client system look like, anyway?) Taken together this is a 1/5 * 1/2 * 4/5 * 4/5 * 1/2 *4/5 = 64/2500 or about 2.6% chance of Microsoft pulling all these things off. A question for everyone: What is your estimation of the probability that Microsoft will reach each of the six above goals? And which ones are necessary in your view for Microsoft to justify its current price?