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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (3760)	11/7/1998 6:01:00 PM
From: gregor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

MM ; I'm just trying to look forward to Monday morning. If the market reacted to a positive Democratic victory on election day with a 100+ point rally then Gingrich's resignation may well bode for a 200+ rally. I'm not predicting just speculating. Gingrich was viewed with contempt by both pro Clinton liberals and conservative Republicans who thought his policies were too conciliatory. Call it the Bush, inside the beltway, moderate. For example, many thought that he should not have bargained a tax cut away from an 80 billion dollar surplus when the tax burden is at an all time high. So , therefore, his ouster would be likened as an interest rate cut or two. The only reason I'm thinking this is that there are so many people happy to see him go that the reaction may as well be like pouring gasoline on market euphoria.

To: MythMan who wrote (3760)	11/9/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Another 170 bln. $ are gone... Who cares? We are going UP. MOSCOW, Nov 8 (AFP) - Dangling by a last thread of solvency, Russia must persuade international visitors to Moscow this week to lower a cash lifeline even as it continues to thumb its nose at long-suffering creditors. Japan, Germany and the World Bank are sending top officials to Moscow in the coming days to gauge the current economic climate in Moscow. The mercury plunged a few more degrees last week after Russia admitted it would not be able to pay back huge foreign debt on time. Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi is due in Moscow for a summit meeting Thursday, giving ailing President Boris Yeltsin just three more days to complete his convalescence from nervous exhaustion in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. The talks will be dominated by the dispute over the Kuril Islands which has plagued Moscow-Tokyo relations for 50 years. But the Japanese delegation will also be keen to assess whether to disburse further tranches in a 1.5-billion-dollar two-year loan to Russia. Russia is expecting another key creditor to arrive from Tokyo on Thursday. World Bank President James Wolfensohn is to stop off in Moscow to meet the new government, which after two months is still grappling with a plan to reverse the country's breathtaking economic tailspin. But the World Bank has stressed that Wolfensohn will not discuss disbursement of a further 500 million dollar loan tranche to Moscow, and merely wants to get to know Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and his cohorts. As a prelude to the visits, Russia is to host Germany's new Foreign Minister Joshka Fischer on Wednesday to pave the way for a November 16 visit by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Germany is Russia's largest trade partner, and a key member of the group of western creditors growing ever more nervous at the prospect of Moscow's looming bankruptcy. Russia raised the spectre last week that it could become the first country in history to default on both domestic and foreign debt. Having ignominiously frozen its 40-billion-dollar domestic bond market in August, Moscow said last week it would not be able to pay out the 21 billion dollars it owes foreigners by the end of 1999. However, the government earned itself some breathing space on Friday by reaching a restructuring deal with foreign banks burned by the August 17 domestic debt fiasco. But the amount of frozen GKOs as the bonds are known pales into insignificance in comparison with the 170 billion dollars of foreign debt which Russia owes other countries, banks and institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. "We must pay 3.5 billion dollars this year and 17.5 next year," said Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov over the weekend. "These are numbers beyond our means. And it means we must reach an agreement with our creditors." Despite the fears of an imminent default, Maslyukov said Tokyo had still promised to dole out a further 800 million dollars in promised credits. Russia is thus in the slightly unreal position of expecting fresh loans from abroad while punishing former creditors. Increasingly Moscow has looked for different forms of financing to ensure it has enough cash to finance heavy spending commitments. Last week it announced the privatisation of part of gas giant Gazprom, and renewed a deal with South African giant De Beers for the sale of Russian diamonds on world markets. On Friday it finalised a deal with the US government for the shipment of food aid, partly tied to a 600-million-dollar credit. All the proceeds will be welcome in a country facing a long winter with insufficient food, fuel and financial reserves. Fuel shortages in far eastern regions have already resulted in calls for whole towns to be evacuated, in circumstances described as "extremely critical" by government ministers. Financial shortages meanwhile expose the government to the risk of reneging on its promises to make good wage and pension arrears. After a week in which one angry, unpaid pensioner blew up his car just yards from the Kremlin walls, and several thousand others marched through Moscow to commemorate the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, this could be the most dangerous default of all.