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Biotech / Medical : Pharmos (PARS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: schadenfreude who wrote (124)	11/8/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Ariella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1386

Dear Otaku -- $180,000 in Q3 revenue, most of which was probably logged in the final month of the quarter, is the beginning ramp up of the first two eye drugs on the market for Pharmos. ( A third, LE-T, is due out on the market in about 15 months.) The US market for Lotemax is approximately $100 million, of which PARS/BOL hopes to achieve a 15% market share. After BOL's cut and royalties due to Dr. Bodor, PARS gets to keep about 20% of the revenue figure. Full market penetration is expected within 24 months after the June 1998 product launch. If that goal is achieved, PARS will begin to net an annualized rate of $3 million from US sales of Lotemax in mid 2000. This figure will be augmented by foreign sales of Lotemax, which I believe doubles the total market share and profit potential of the drug. The US market for Alrex is approximately $250 million, of which PARS/BOL hopes to achieve a similar market share. If that goal is achieved, PARS will begin to net an annualized rate of $7.5 million from US sales of Alrex in mid 2000. This figure would be doubled by foreign sales of Alrex. By the end of year 2000, annualized potential income from the two drugs is probably close to $15 million to $21 million. (Current cash burn is under $6 million/year.) Of course, sales of LE-T would increase this contribution from eye care products further. PARS can increase its take from Alrex and Lotemax after June 2000 if it opts to co-market the drugs, something possible under the current contract with BOL. HU-211, if on the market at the end of year 2000, will have an immediate, huge impact on the bottom line. Its US market alone is probably close to $ 1 billion and, since there is no acceptable drug for traumatic brain injury, it has a potential to grab the first-to-market lion's share of the market. If, say, that's 50% and we get a 10% cut from the partner, that amounts to $50 million in annualized revenue. With a little luck PARS can be racing toward revenues of $75 million/year within 2 years while most biotechs are still mired in cash burn. Behind the drugs named above comes HU-211 for stroke, as an antidote for nerve gas poisoning, for treatment of glaucoma, and a Tamoxifen analog for the treatment of breast cancer. Currently, the company has $53 million in tax loss carryforwards... Is that worth getting excited about? ;-) Ariella