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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (24992)	11/7/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Are you starting to feel Bezos is becoming surrounded? James, when Bezos feels "surrounded", he sells 180K amzn shares. I am sure that he would like to sell more of it, only he knows that everybody is watching! Jan, He will sell more soon. He needs to sell as many as possible by Q2 of 99. Glenn

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (24992)	11/8/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

As clear as the picture should be getting for Amazon speculators that competition will be tough and the $6 billion market cap even tougher to maintain, I think it will take a while before the stock finally breaks down and trades much lower. There are still to many things working to maintain the price at high levels: 1] The brokerages stand to make a fortune if the Internet sector continues to soar. 2] Amazon.com, as outrageously speculative as the stock price may be, HAS had strong sales growth and early success in migrating their business into music (similar commodity-type business). They are very good at what they do. 3] Although competitors now match Amazon for the ease and features of their "web experience", it will take several months before they are able to grow features beyond what Amazon can offer and grow momentum to erode Amazon's substantial lead. Barnesandnoble.com is growing faster than Amazon but they are starting from a much smaller base. 4] The Internet stocks will enjoy a robust Christmas buying season and Internet usage and sales will continue to be foremost in the media and public's interests. Many of the Internet stocks now look ready for a pull back. However, this sector will remain "HOT" for several quarters or years. It will probably go much higher as a sector over the next three years despite the current highly speculative valuations. I do not expect Amazon.com to crash down to a valuation based on some "reasonable" multiple of current sales or even sales projected for the next 12-18 months. A normal risk/reward valuation based on sales growth would put Amazon closer to $40. That price won't be seen, IMO, anytime in the next year. Although Amazon lovers will continue to deny it makes any difference, however, I expect a short-term pull-back from the current level due to some heightened concern over competition and because the stock is over-bought according to the TA and the indicators now point to a pull-back in the coming few days. IMO, sell or go short but don't expect it to drop off a cliff unless the market corrects violently. The selling of insdier shares should help to move the stock down from this range. Hoever, that sell-off will be managed so that it doesn't crash the price.