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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (68066)	11/8/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Robert - These numbers are a little soft because some of the WW players do not break out revenue numbers in a way which makes the analysis clean, and the numbers, percentages, and growth potential are subject to a lot of interpretation. Even the 'customer' is a soft definition - IDC and dataquest measure sales from the manufacturer, which in 1H98 were very different from sales to customers because of the large channel inventory of CPQ, IBM and HP. So any meaningful discussion requires a careful definition of terms. Also there is no easy way to know what use customers make of 'mainstream' x86 servers, although there is some survey data. But some widely accepted ballpark '97 numbers are - x86 PCs - $80B x86 servers - $35B other x86 non-PC - $10B (workstations and specialty x86 usage) which would put total of x86 based 'things' at about $125B non-intel servers/mainframes - $105B These numbers are quite soft - do you include software? what about external storage? one measure is all capital costs for initial installation, but that obscures the HW revenues. It is almost impossible to exclude software in the mainframe market, and also many mainframes are never sold but only leased. So these are definitely in the WAG category, where I have tried to get to 'apples vs. apples' comparisons. The x86 server market can be further divided into 'mainstream' and 'high end', where the mainstream systems are traditional file and print, and the high end is large application servers. The split in revenue terms is probably about 5 to 1. This puts the high end x86 server business at about $5B. It is this high end business which I meant with the 20x comment to Tony, comparing to the $105B high end non-intel number. For a different perspective, we can look at this from the perspective of total IT spending for initial capital costs, which is something on the order of $450B, the current Intel-architecture share is about 25%. However you slice it, this is clearly a big opportunity for Intel if they can make the move off of the desktop. I hope this clears it up a little.