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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (26064)	11/8/1998 4:01:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

fabtech.org Excerpt: When the semiconductor market is in a slump, poor financial news from chip companies usually act as a pall that hangs over the industry. Such bad news lags developments in the semiconductor market and often obscure the subtle, but clear, signals of a semiconductor market upturn. Since we published the report on the market upturn on August 7, 1998, we have gathered information that supported our case that the market has "turned". We now have conclusive evidence that the semiconductor market has emerged from a 3 year slump and is poised for the next boom period

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (26064)	11/8/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 70976

Ignore what i said yesterday re the lead time between the peak in the '% of stocks>40dma' vs the peak in the Dow. I rechecked the data and counted 18 times from 1986-98 in which the DJ dropped more than 6%-----of these 18 times, 1 was an abnormally long aberation so ignore. Of the other 17 times----2 times there was no advance warning at all (the peak in the %>40dma coincided with the peak in the DJ), once we got 1 week warning, twice we got 2 weeks warning and the other12 times the warning ranged from 34-106 calandar days (avg 59). Of course one worries about the none to barely none times. The DJ dropped 10.9% in early 94 and 10.8% in Jan 90 both with no advance warning. In 1987 the DJ peaked out on Aug 25 and the %>40dma peaked 14 calanser days earlier.-------As I noted yesterday, the % of stocks >40dma hit a high of almost 83% on Nov 5 and downticked a bit on Nov6.