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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (57191)	11/8/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ---------------------------- Short-term technicals are mostly in the overbought region, but the market is still moving up. In attempting to identify the mid-term top I decided to look at other markets. Besides the U.S. market, BRITAIN, GERMANY, FRANCE, HONG KONG, JAPAN are all in the overbought region, CLASS SELL status, per not only the daily charts but also the weekly charts. Per the weekly charts, which are normally very accurate with their signals, these markets are topping out and should reverse within 2 weeks and as soon as next week. Another technical tidbit about these 5 overseas markets is that BRITAIN, FRANCE, GERMANY, JAPAN have not been able to exceed their major resistance(weekly chart), with the exception of HK, so in other words these 4 markets have produced lower lows and will produce lower highs(if they dont climb significantly from here). Japan has already shown signs that they are turning down per the weekly charts. How much will these markets pull back? I feel more comfortable with saying that they are starting their topping out process which could also take weeks before any significant decline. Now the question is whether the U.S.Markets is an OASIS? I will leave that to others to answer, but I will say that the major overseas markets and in the process of topping off. They can still move up, but only a little more - just a few percentage points. Please understand that this analysis is based on weekly performance not daily. Overall feel that these overseas markets should be relatively flat for the following 1-2 weeks, which also puts the timing in line with the NOV FOMC meeting. Will the overseas markets move up if the FEDs reduces rates - well lets put it this way Britain reduced rates and the FTSE is showing signs of topping out/declining. One last tidbit on the overseas markets - none of them have had a double bottom yet, only the U.S. markets had a double bottom per the weekly charts. The statistical probability of a retest of the overseas market's lows are strong, especially if they do not produce higher highs. I realise that many bulls will say that the overseas markets will follow the U.S. - well my position is based on statistics not, so I will leave the subjective to others. In light of that feel that the Britain, France, Germany, and Japan are probable shorts in the forthcoming weeks. So how much higher can the U.S. markets go if the overseas markets are flat or declining? It doesn't matter since the U.S. is an oasis - right? seeya