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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chirodoc who wrote (7438)	11/8/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Curtis, I think you may be a little optimistic, especially the part about US and Europe. Is the US stock market going up (one of the reasons) because global problems are more transparent or because the solution to these problems are at hand? aei.org The above link dates back to Feb 1998. Makin gave a great description of the 4 phases of bad debt. We are now entering the last phase. Having gone through the US S&L debacle, I can't help but wonder what the impact to the global economy would be when these bad loans are written off? Considering the magnitude, the S&L crisis is meager in comparison. Just take China as an example. They have already showed the will to close some Itics. Are insolvent banks next? With the magic abacus, they may somehow achieve 8% target growth rate for 1998. The year is almost over. What is the growth rate for 1999? What is needed to prevent a devaluation? What is the answer to the growing unemployment problem? What about over capacity? We can ask similar questions country by country. I wouldn't give even odds that we are out of the woods. My most recent thought is the yen and the yuan both need to go down first, stabilize at a sustainable level, then recovery would start from that base. Just my 2 cents on a rare wet Sunday morning in SD. Ramsey