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To: Oak Tree who wrote (22748)	11/8/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: dwight vickers	Respond to of 116789

Paul, It's too soon for the global "credit crunch" to be affecting consumer loans in the US. We have a solid currency, rallying stock market, easy Fed, budget "surplus", and low interest rates. When it shows up in our banks, the whole situation will be obvious to the man in the street, and out of control. Eventually, just not yet. Dwight

To: Oak Tree who wrote (22748)	11/9/1998 1:17:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116789

Hi Paul. I think that the credit crunch fears arise from off balance sheet items at the banks. Their exposure to emerging market meltdowns through hedge fund loans and derivatives, the extent of which no one really knows, could potentially lead to a major credit crunch. This is why Greenspan is lowering rates - for liquidity, at least that's what many believe. I've also read another forecast recently where one analyst said rates will continue down to the 2% range in order to entice banks to make the loans necessary to deal with the Y2K problem. Dwight is correct I believe, the full effect of the global crisis has not been truly felt in North America yet. At least that is my opinion. Regards