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To: Oak Tree who wrote (22751)	11/8/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116779

Not sure you can do it....except by shorting Russian Stocks that are traded on NYSE (IMO not a bad strategy)

To: Oak Tree who wrote (22751)	11/8/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116779

Glenn could teach a thing or two Wall Street, By Alan Deans People who ride on rocket ships know all about the law of physics that stipulates what goes up must come down. John Glenn has received a refresher course on it and it could be that investors will get their own reminder soon. Wall Street has taken on the trajectory of a rocket since the start of October. It is close to recording a 20 per cent rise from its recent bottom, a confirmation if it comes that the bull market is back. Since the Federal Reserve started making rate cuts, there has been a marked move away from the safe haven afforded by US Treasuries and back into equities. The yield on 30-year government paper has risen from 4.71 per cent to close last week after a rout on Friday at 5.36 per cent -- a gain in the cost of funds of 13.8 per cent. At the same time, money has been piling into stocks. The game cannot continue. Somewhere around present levels, investors will decide bond yields have become pretty attractive and will slow their headlong rush down Wall Street, despite the chance now that the Fed will not ease again this month. Mutual fund researcher Trim Tabs says $US26.4 billion ($41.9 billion) has gone into US equity funds in the month to November 5, adding that there has been a notable broadening so that 45 managers received new cash. During the three days ended last Thursday, $US3.7 billion went into domestic stocks, and $US1 billion of that went into aggressive growth funds. Small cap funds took in the most since last January. This flood of money is driving the market, not fundamentals, because earnings results remain sombre. Some 89 per cent of S & P 500 companies have reported earnings for the third quarter and the average company is 3.6 per cent down on last year. Yet prices are sky high. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on Friday at 8975.5 points, still more than 300 points below its July record, other measures show that stocks are becoming pricey. The Dow is trading at a price-earnings multiple of 24, just a shade off its record, while the average yield is down to 1.7 per cent. Stocks are back to trading at five times book value. This is not a situation that fusses all market analysts. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's Mr Peter Canelo says that while expectations for earnings growth during the next four quarters seem high at 17.7 per cent, there could be a rational explanation. He says the write-downs we have seen recently have created a low base that could support a strong profit rebound. Mr Canelo says that with the non-recurring losses in the financial sector and the General Motors strike, the growth in S & P 500 operating earnings would have been about 7 per cent. "One year from now, even in a modest growth environment, operating earnings growth could look that much better if these catastrophic charges do not recur," he said. Mr Greg Smith at Prudential Securities said that despite signs of an economic slowdown, global rate cuts and G7 support packages were helping to balance factors. "We could then assume that 1999 will be a year of substantially slowing economic growth and, yes, plenty of profit problems," he said. "But I think the policy shifts would be sufficient to cause investors to look over the valley of 1999 and anticipate better economic times in 2000." afr.com.au