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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (17988)	11/8/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 152472

OT Here is some info about your problem. To time your access to any website you can use a DOS utility from win95, tracert.exe, or ping.exe. They tell you the route you are using to access SI and you can find any timouts,etc and e-mail it to your ISP provider. MSFT decided not to make the utilities for windows, because if all kids start clicking on them they would crash the net. (don't tell your kids how to do it, you might have the whole neighbourhood clogging your ISP server) There is also a website consumer.net which does pretty much the same, but only from their server to the target server. It puts your IP as a defalt in the field, replace it with www.techstock.com (no http://) or whatever you are using to access SI. (you can use both www.xxx.yy and the IP adress 123.345.etc) It takes some time (minutes), but you will get a lot of info, pings should be less than 250ms, 50 ms is very good. however, it doesn;t do it from your server. The main rason to use it is as a refernce and to use the WHOIS feature, to find out where and what an IP address is. -- So back to tracert.exe which does it from your computer. - open a Dos window while connected to internet - tracert -? should give help your path should be set to your windows directory, if not, go to your windows directory first (c:\WINDOWS) Do a DIR TRAC. to make sure you have tracert.exe - typical use is simple tracert www.techstocks.com you should get a list of the servers, routers you go through 1 your ISP server ... 2 probably another server of your ISP .. n your local internet mogul's servers/routers (national backbone) .. m your international maharadja's routers (backbone) ? ... o entering USA ... 10 296 ms 300 ms 302 ms xx.xx.xx..xxxx.xx [123.23.34.56] the first numbers are response (ping) times, then the name of the server/router and the IP address. If there is a timeout you probably get an asterix ?? You can increase the timeout time of tracert with -w nnn (was tricky to figure out ?? in ticks or ms??) Another problem is too many "hops" if you are hopped all over the globe. 30 hops is usually maximum, and more than 20 means potential problems ? To make repeated tests ping.exe is better ping www.techstocks.com ping www.techstocks.com -t will continue pinging until you hit ctrl-c. You might get mostly good 200-300ms pings, but every once in a while an asterix timeout?? ----- Okay, when you get the timeout the next step is to document it, use the same command but redirect the output to a file ping www.techstocks.com -t >file.txt ping www.techstocks.com -t >>file.txt will add the new data to the old file.txt file. type file.txt \| more to see what you got or use your favorite editor (don't forget to ctrl-c to stop ping.exe, you won't see anything on the screen as output goes to the file) If you get timeouts captured mail the file to your ISP provider. Note that this doesn't tell you which router is too busy, selects "wrong" routes, for that you need to run tracert.exe repeatedly. If you wan't to be nasty you can then find the responsible with the WHOIS radiobutton, you will get the e-mail address and name for the manager of the router with the problem. (but better to leave that to your ISP provider) If the trace timouts at www.SEC.CIA.org you are in bad troubles.. Good Luck!!

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (17988)	11/8/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 152472

Ramsey...OT Interesting Link "I think the US market is totally liquidity driven and all FA are out the window. Having said that, I have no experience in this type of a market so being chicken little may be absolutely the wrong strategy" We've been in this kind of market for quite a while now IMO, at least a couple of years. Sad as it may seem,I've been making much more money since I started spending more time reading charts and less on fundies, although I still hang out on this thread and own Q shares so I haven't given up completely. Psychology is obviously very important...the effect of market psychology on the real economy.Things certainly look better from this perspective, although perhaps the condition we've really got is schizophrenia/manic depression.We 'll know more after the next FOMC. If they cut again I think we can assume that conditions are still pretty grim Central bankers seem to have few really palatable options. They can pump up the money supply or create restrictions like currency controls.Little wonder that they're choosing immediate gratification. Some smart guys like the aforementioned miserable mkt timer Jim Grant are getting bullish on Japan. They even had a 4% Barton Biggs rally the other day.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (17988)	11/9/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 152472

Ramsey, Financial Times..Nov.5..somewhat OT JAPAN: Plan to boost credit attacked By Michiyo Nakamoto and Gillian Tett in Tokyo The Japanese government's injection of capital into banks is a "half-baked" solution to the severe credit contraction that is afflicting the Japanese economy, a member of the ruling Liberal Democratic party has warned. The credit squeeze cannot be solved without measures "to force the banks to get rid of their real estate assets, to bring real estate back to the market," said Yasuhisa Shiozaki, a member of the LDP's Special Committee on Financial Problems and previously state minister at the finance ministry. "The real source of the credit crunch is the problem of non-performing loans. Injecting capital into banks won't lead the banks to [off-load] their non-performing loans enough. They will keep them on their books and the property won't come on to the market," Mr Shiozaki said. The capital injection scheme, which the LDP barely managed to pass through parliament in a political deal with two opposition parties, could even be "counter-productive" if bad banks were allowed to survive, he said. Mr Shiozaki's comments reflect serious concerns, even in the ruling party, about the effectiveness of the capital injection scheme in tackling the problems of the financial sector and reviving domestic economic activity. The government has been at pains to convince Japanese banks to accept an injection. The banks fear that doing so would damage their reputation and the Industrial Bank of Japan is the only bank to have said publicly that it would accept. Japanese authorities have also raised fears about further credit contraction towards the end of the year. Masaru Hayami, central bank governor, yesterday told the cabinet that cash-strapped banks were still reducing lending to corporations. "We are concerned about the situation at the end of this year. We will work even harder to supply ample funds by then," he said. The Bank of Japan yesterday said that it had provided an additional ¥400bn ($3.4bn) of liquidity to Long Term Credit Bank via the Deposit Insurance Corporation, a government body. This follows an earlier injection of ¥3,000bn last week, of which an estimated ¥2,000bn has since been lent to other weak banks via the money market. LTCB also said it would continue to issue debentures. The BoJ yesterday said that the cash injection was designed to calm market unease during the LTCB nationalisation process. However, some government officials admitted that the recent reform measures had not yet helped to ease the financial jitters, and above all, the credit squeeze. Yoshiro Mori, secretary-general of the LDP, warned that the credit contraction had spread from small to large companies. He indicated there was serious concern within the cabinet that Japanese banks would have increased difficulty raising non-yen funds over the new year period. Kaoro Yosano, trade minister, argued yesterday that the problem was so severe the government should use funds from its fiscal investment and loan programme to buy corporate bonds. "Even big companies are having difficulties raising funds," Mr Yosano said. The fiscal investment and loan programme is legally barred from purchasing corporate bonds, so any purchases would need to be carried out through semi-government agencies, such as the Japan Development Bank.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (17988)	11/9/1998 9:25:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

And More..FT..Nov 9 re Japan JAPAN: Shadow shogun edges into the limelight The real power in Tokyo is a man who has spent most of his obscure career in local politics. Michiyo Nakamoto explains In the absence of strong leadership from Keizo Obu chi, the prime minister, the Japanese government has often seemed like an aircraft on automatic pilot heading inexorably towards a collision. But as Mr Obuchi spends his time posing for the cameras with Takahonaha, the sumo champion, or talking to Chiaki Mukai, the Japanese astronaut aboard the space shuttle, a relatively unknown but increasingly influential power-broker in the ruling Liberal Democratic party is working feverishly to steer the Obuchi government back to on a more stable path. Hiromu Nonaka, chief cabinet secretary, is the shadow shogun most widely credited with running the Japanese government these days. "People openly refer to the Nonaka cabinet. Mr Obuchi's lack of leadership means that Mr Nonaka has no choice but to make the decisions himself," says Takayoshi Miyagawa, president of the Centre for Political Public Relations, a private think-tank. It is to Mr Nonaka, 72, that the country's top bureaucrats and party members go when they want to influence government policy or seek advice on how to deal with the opposition. Even Mr Obuchi is reported to tell LDP officials and bureaucrats to refer important decisions to Mr Nonaka, encouraging what has been called the "Nonaka pilgrimage". When the LDP, which does not have a majority in the Diet's upper house, was mired in a long and heated debate with the opposition Democratic party over the financial reform bills aimed at creating a framework for stabilising the financial sector, it was Mr Nonaka who made the final decision to accept the Democratic party's demands wholesale and get the bills passed. Similarly, when the LDP faced strong resistance from the Democrats over plans to inject public money into undercapitalised banks, Mr Nonaka was behind the LDP's quick change in tactics that led to deals with the opposition Komei party and the Liberal party and the passing of legislation authorising the use of ¥25,000bn ($210bn) in public funds to recapitalise banks. Japanese politics has long been characterised by backroom wheeling and dealing. But the concentration of power in a man who is nothing more than the government's chief spokesman is unprecedented. "This is the first time such a situation has existed since the war," Mr Miyagawa says. How was an obscure politician who is a relative newcomer to the LDP - having won his first parliamentary seat just 15 years ago at the age of 57 - able to exert so much influence in a party that still values seniority and rank over ability? It stems in large part from Mr Obuchi's lack of leader ship and the upper house election defeat which discredited many key LDP leaders. Opposition parliamentarians have complained that earlier in their negotiations with the LDP, particularly during the debate on the financial reform bills, they could not figure out who was making the decisions in the LDP. The consensus since then seems increasingly that it is Mr Nonaka. However, the rise of Mr Nonaka, who spent most of his political career in the political backwater of the Kyoto municipal and regional governments, owes as much to his own experience in politics and the critical situation the LDP finds itself in amid a deepening recession, analysts say. A wily politician with a combative spirit who is capable of making difficult decisions, Mr Nonaka is also known as a man of sensitivity and a strong sense of duty. His experience during the war watching Korean residents in Japan being forced into hard labour laid the foundations for a personal crusade to improve Japan's relations with not only South Korea but North Korea too. These traits have won him the respect of leading LDP politicians, such as Koichi Kato, his former boss as secretary-general of the LDP, who is considered a sure contender to become prime minister one day. Mr Kato once said the best thing that happened to him in his job as secretary-general was to get to know Mr Nonaka, then his deputy. But Mr Nonaka's power stems at least as much from his ability to understand what the public wants from its political leaders. "The LDP must carry out very unpopular policies, such as the injection of public money into banks. Mr Nonaka is one of the few conservative politicians who can explain to the public [the need to adopt those policies] in terms that they can understand," says Shigenori Okazaki, political analyst at Warburg Dillon Read in Tokyo. In a show of solidarity with the small business owners he knows so well from his years in local government, Mr Nonaka lashed out against the "immorality" of bankers in the midst of heated public debate over whether to inject public funds into banks. So far, his efforts have allowed the LDP to pass vital financial bills and avoid the worst pitfalls. But Mr Nonaka's shadow-shogunate faces considerable hurdles ahead. For one thing, there is no guarantee that he will be able to maintain the loyalty of key LDP members. "He may become the proverbial nail that gets hammered in because it sticks out too much," says Mr Miyagawa. The need for co-operation with opposition parties also makes it almost certain that next year's Diet session will be rocky. The Liberal party, for example, whose co-operation the LDP needs to pass legislation on new security arrangements with the US, is demanding that the government reduce the consumption tax from the current 5 per cent to 3 per cent - a move the LDP and finance ministry strongly oppose. Analysts worry that his political skills and style are still unhoned on a national level. The turbulence Mr Nonaka faces ahead will doubtless test them to the limit. Here's still another link:http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qbfd82.htm