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Gold/Mining/Energy : Tenke Mining Corp (TNK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomas who wrote (270)	11/11/1998 7:02:00 AM
From: Gunnar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 486

What do we know about the war in the DRC that is of importance for Tenke Mining? The Kabila government is under heavy pressure from the Uganda/Rwanda/Tutsi-coalition. The outcome of this fight seems to me to be depending on two factors: 1. The strength and persistence of the foreign backers of the opponents. 2. The one of the two opponents that can show up strong backers that will make it plausible that they can win, and then pay the unmotivated local military forces to keep land. Except money tribalism seems to be motivating Congo soldiers to fight, but this seems to be part of local fights, not national solutions for the whole country. 3. A major set back for the governments forces along with local uprisings could make the state as a tool for governing to rotten, it is not likely that a Tutsi minority government could rule this country. 4. The Katangan society will not of course just sit and watch this happen. Separatism is a alternative that may grow in strength. The agriculture area in the east incorporates with Rwanda/Uganda, the southern part will build an axis like Zimbabwe - the south of DRC - Angola with a UNITA clean eastern border and Kinshasa becomes a area of trade with the surrounding communities. But this will not be a stable long lasting solution. It is easier to start war than to stop war. For me the best alternative still seems to be a withdrawal of the Rwandan/Ugandan forces. There are no foreign forces in the DRC that threatens these two countries borders. After the withdrawal of the rest an election under international supervision. The most probable development seems to be that Rwanda/Uganda strikes east and that the coalition tries to cut of the western enemy forces by attacking along the eastern front, maybe including moving the war to Rwanda. And after that negotiation. This is not a necessity. Do the actors involved see what they will gain by a continuing war compared to peace? "Uganda-Rwanda form Combined High Command for Africa War I and link it to Congo rebels in Goma. The line in the sand of Africa War I is now clearly drawn for everyone to see. The SADC and Uganda-Rwanda are at war." (NCN) The forces that are in struggle has been obvious for long. This is not a true picture from the battle field, the "Africa War I". We will see what happens if/when Kabila launch the counter attack in the east. Regards, Gunnar