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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Electric who wrote (57203)	11/9/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

I hate to get into a major stock discussion on this thread but though I trade on TA, I am a fundamentalist at heart. I play DELL on the higher sucker theory only and even that I only do on an in and out again basis. DELL was great a few years ago but for those that think it will keep doing what it has in the past, it shouldn't, note I didn't say couldn't in this irrational market. If they split and doubled like in the past for another year, they would have a larger market cap than all the other boxmakers in the the US. They would also have more value than all the PCs that exist in the US. Of course in this market, they will probably do it for another 5 years. <g> I agree CPQ is old news in the box biz but Pfeiffer saw this and that is why he aquired DEC. With that he picked up services which I believe is the wave of the future and has already become IBMs savior as of late. He also gained an ISP in Alta Vista and a much improved laptop line as well as servers. That is where they are moving and will surrender desktops to DELL if need be. It was a move with the future in mind. Not necessarily better than DELL (though I think so), but different. DELL's prices are still too high for what they provide IMO as I can build my own box with twice the power for half the price although I understand not everyone is willing to build their own. As for GTW, I am not impressed with them in the least. They use "interesting" book keeping <g> like IBM does. Sooner or later, the street will realize this and they will get crushed. Laugh real hard but I think MUEI is going to turn out to be DELLs arch rival in the coming years. I am still kicking myself for not mortgaging the house and loading up at 8 when the old DELL vice took over MUEI and showed results in the first 30 days. There is allot of good going on there but it does help to be here in Boise and I don't want to clutter this thread with all the hub bub. Besides, the stock has already made its move now. I think DELL is just making the same flag that I pointed out to someone on the Stock attack thread a while back on MSFT. If I dump my other long play, I will probably take a stab at DELL for an earnings play although I never hold a stock through earnings announcement. Even the infallable miss sometimes <ggg> As for the Fed cut, I think it was a mix of many things, none of which were good. I do think there were liquidity/credit problems but the cut won't help. If you won't give a loan to a guy with no job and I give you money at a cheaper rate are you going to give that guy with no job a loan now? Heck no!! The big banks aren't going to loan money to high risk foreign markets or money losing companies now just because of a few basis points cut in the Fed rate. The other reason was the indirect relation to the market and all the money that was coming out in ever increasing amounts. Add to this the impending job losses and the resulting funds that would be withdrawn so these people could pay their mortgages and car payments and the market could have started falling REALLY fast. People are hedged to the hilt nowdays and think it is normal. The younger generation sees nothing abnormal about financing everything. As a supervisor in the military, I have to get involved in other people's finances all the time when they get into trouble. Military equals steady paycheck and enforced bill paying to businesses and credit card issuers. I have kids right out of high school driving Lexus, corvettes and BMWs. They buy all new furniture on credit and eat out 5 days a week charging it on their credit cards. When they miss a payment and I have them bring in all their bills I go into shock. They don't think they have a problem because they make their minimum payments. I try to explain how they are losing more in interest than they are paying and they just don't get it. Of course I am an old stooge who never carries a balence on any cards and only have a small loan on my house as a tax write off. If a real recession hits and these people start defaulting on loans and having to liquidate their stock holdings, things could get real ugly. AG is just trying to throw pillows down for when the bodies start falling if we indeed are not an Oasis of prosperity. My long pick is probabaly a bad one but I am still playing those KEA calls I bought a couple weeks ago. If it doesn't move soon though I will probably pull out since I think the up market is about done short term anyway. I bought all the way out to February and am already in the green so I don't have to sweat too much. My first target was 43-44 range but it could run into the 50s or higher easy if this is a real bull run. It tends to either lead or follow CPWR with the lagger usually catching up late. I just let one run then buy the one that gets left behind. There is no real link between the two but it has worked for me for over a year. Its hard to say what I am going to do though since I have a multitude of plans laid out for different market actions and internals with a different reaction on my part for each market condition. Good Luck, I am sure I will catch you later somewhere tonight. Lee