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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jordan A. Sheridan who wrote (12145)	11/9/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Respond to of 74651

Jorden, Bearded One has not screwed up in his math. You are the one that is not doing your math correctly. When figuring out the probability that ALL scenarios will occur, you must multiply the fractions sequentially to each other (like Bearded One did). You do not add them up and divide by the 100% total (like you seemed to have done). That gives you a probability that something will occur but not everything. Even this is not a good math statistic. The probability that something will occur should be equal to the highest probability incident (in this example - the 2 80% events). But regardless, your the one with the incorrect math. Think about it. Toy