To: Jeffrey L. Henken who wrote (571 ) 11/9/1998 2:02:00 PM From: Ray Tarke Respond to of 939
U.S. Slowdown Keeps Rate Cut Hopes Alive By Knut Engelmann WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It sounded almost too good to be true: The U.S. central bank cuts interest rates, and barely three weeks later chaotic financial markets have gone back to normal, the fear of an imminent recession all but forgotten. Beware: If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Signs last week that global economic woes were hurting the United States served as a grim reminder that not all is well in the world's top economy -- and that the Federal Reserve may need to administer more rate cuts to prevent a crash landing. ''There's a perception on the part of many that the crisis is over,'' said James Glassman, senior economist at Chemical Securities in New York. ''I think they are wrong.'' The Fed next meets to discuss interest rates on Nov. 17, when all but one of 18 economists polled by Reuters last week expect it to cut the key federal funds overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.75 percent. That would be the third cut in only seven weeks, following two quarter-point cuts each in the fed funds rate on Sept. 29 and Oct. 15. For sure, the U.S. stock market has soared by more than 10 percent since the Fed started cutting rates in September to head off a developing credit crunch that it feared could have killed off the more than seven-year old U.S. expansion. But rather than reveling in the good news, Fed officials privately warn that such strong gains, based mainly on expected increases in corporate profits, will be impossible to maintain. After all, the economy is unmistakably slowing, and that will sooner or later put a dent into corporate earnings, they say. The picture in the nation's credit markets, while not as dire as it was last month, is still far from rosy and suggests lenders have yet to regain the appetite for risk which they lost amid mounting turmoil in global financial markets. Anecdotal evidence shows that corporate borrowers still face major difficulties finding investors to lend them money without demanding a hefty premium -- or spread -- over rates on U.S. government debt. ''The amount of panic in financial markets was totally out of line with the objective realities of what was going on in the economy,'' noted Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor. ''But spreads are still very wide and volumes in corporate bond markets are still very small compared to earlier in the year.'' But the strongest hint that things are not as rosy as many in the market may believe, and the one that the Fed is bound to pay most attention to, is still coming from what is widely referred to as the ''real'' economy -- jobs and production. Labor market data released last week showed the economy added far fewer new jobs in October than had been forecast, indicating the economy has already slowed sharply from its red-hot pace earlier in the year. Clearly, the Fed is worried. ''We would like to see an ideal soft landing and will do what we can to try to bring it about. There does seem to be a slowdown,'' Fed Governor Edward Gramlich said Friday. And just a few days earlier, the Fed reported in its Beige Book survey of regional economic activity that manufacturing across the country went into a lower gear in September and October, hurt by lower exports to crisis-ravaged Asia. Trying to head off a recession in the United States that could have devastating effects on the entire world economy just as it struggles to overcome the ripple effects of the Asian crisis remains smack on top of the Fed's agenda. ''Will it be a soft landing or a crash? The answer to that depends in no small part on the Fed itself,'' said Joel Naroff, Philadelphia-based economist at First Union Corp. (NYSE:FTU - news) Ironically, the pressure for further rate cuts stems not least from the recent improvement in markets themselves. ''The paradox is that the recent Fed easings contributed to calming the markets,'' said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Primark Decision Economics in Boston. ''Not easing now could reignite the turmoil.'' Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, in whose hands the fate of U.S. interest rates ultimately rests, declined to comment directly on what lies ahead for monetary policy in a speech last week, his first appearance since the Fed's Oct. 15 cut. He chose to highlight a calmer mood in financial markets rather than dwell on the concerns about the economy that he emphasized in appearances prior to the last two rate cuts. Some investors took that as a signal that the central bank head might keep his powder dry at the Nov. 17 policy meeting. Still, there is little doubt that the Fed, faced with the almost Herculean task of keeping the U.S. economy going smoothly in the face of the globe's worst financial crisis in 50 years, remains firmly biased toward lower interest rates. ''We're all too hung up on whether they're going to cut at this meeting or the next one (on Dec. 22),'' said Naroff. ''Additional moves are coming and most likely they will happen before the end of this year as well as early next year.'' dailynews.yahoo.com I don't think Mr.Greespan will cut next week, but will hint that he might come December 22. Regards, R.T